Major shipping companies are expected to return to Red Sea sailings from 2026.
A key issue to watch in container shipping next year is the gradual return to the Red Sea route after long detours around the Cape of Good Hope. This return is initially expected to lead to congestion in European ports. Intensified rate pressures would follow. A Red Sea return is expected to initially create waves, triggering disruption with severe market pressure resumption on the cards. Fortunately, liners are in no hurry to return. Tanker & bulk shipping are likely to be less impacted by this forecast of a full return to the Red Sea.
Container lines’ decision to navigate their return to the Red Sea is arguably the most important development to watch for in the global shipping market during the next year. It’s not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’. It’s anticipated that if one big shipping liner decides it’s worth the risk, other liners will surely follow. The
has been a vital link for modern East-West trade, sustained for decades. The Suez Canal is rated to handle over 15% of global goods trade and up to twice that share of global container traffic, particularly with those that move consumer goods.
Detouring around the Cape of Good Hope has been a common practice for most container vessels for nearly two years. This rerouting followed Yemen’s Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea region that began two years ago, in 2023. This unprecedented avoidance lasted far longer than expected. It triggered a rebound in container rates & line profit margins. The spike was after witnessing a sharp decline from elevated pandemic levels in 2023.
Resuming Red Sea transit saves more than 3,000 nautical miles. This corresponds to roughly 10 days of sailing on the Asia-Northwest Europe route. Over time, this procedure is expected to significantly free up vessel capacity. The detour tends to absorb around 6% of global fleet capacity on top of frequent delays. That’s the reason why a return is expected to make waves, just as the diversion initially did.
Following the Gaza ceasefire deal in October, liner companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd no longer rule out the return to the Red Sea route, adding that they intend to do so as soon as conditions permit. CMA-CGM sustained some services under naval escort and has also expressed a desire to resume transits shortly.
November 2025 data reflects Red Sea shipping has yet to recover, as vessels crossing the Bab el Mandeb strait each day reflect a rolling 7-day average when compared with its baseline values 2 years back in 2023.
The return to the Red Sea is expected to initially trigger disruption, with severe market pressure to follow. However, resuming the Red Sea route would be a logical decision, even though it’s a significant issue. Efficiency in customer supply chains will eventually benefit from reopening the passage. So will fuel consumption and greenhouse emissions, which peaked due to the extra distances.
So, a return to the previous norm is expected to initiate new disruption. Vessels arriving earlier than expected could lead to triggering port congestion. Such arrivals may again clog container terminals, causing delays to chips and empty containers across supply chains. Container liners may opt for blank sailings to mitigate this effect. Overall freight rates may increase, especially if this shift coincides with the Chinese New Year.
Significant downward pressure on rates is likely once sailing schedules stabilise. More capacity is likely to be released. New vessels from the extensive order book may continue to enter service during 2026. Simultaneously, container volume growth is expected to remain low, further driving down rates. Â This effect may surpass operational cost savings.
