By Kavinda Ratnapala
Colombo
Islamabad- 173 votes on the 25th of March is all that stands between Khan’s Premiership and being just another first minister who has been shown the door prior to serving a full term in office. The no-confidence motion which was tabled in Pakistan’s Lower House has according to Pakistan watchers been building up for over a year with traction being gained with the belief that the all-powerful army, which has tried to reiterate its neutrality, has soured with Khan’s performance.
While Khan stayed defiant, he is not only facing a resurgent insurgency from the north in the form of the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and Baluch separatists groups. But he is also facing insurgency from within in the form of a breakaway fraction which has made their intentions clear. To topple Khan’s premiership which has been faulted for its failings both in the international and domestic realms. From runaway inflation to crumbling relations with the United States the fabled Cricket World Cup-winning captain seems, in cricket talk to have been given a 1st innings total he is simply unable to beat with a draw simply an impossibility.
Imran Khan’s troubles are not new, especially with his entanglement with the Pakistani army, being a point of contention from the very start of his premiership. What is new is the uncommon unity the join-opposition has been able to front giving disgruntle coalition members the strength to walk away from Khan’s government. Reducing the majority of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, to 155 seats. This turn of events simply would not have been possible if the 3 leading opposition party leaders from the Pakistan Muslim League-N, Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party and the fundamentalist Pakistan Democratic Movement, had not been able to come together in a show of unity from across the political spectrum not seen since the transition to electoral governance since the early 90s.
The challenges that Khan faces are herculean, to say the least, but his burden has only been added to by the terrible luck he has also had to face on an international and local front.
For instance, when he arrived in Moscow at the end of February to discuss the planned construction of a $3 billion Russian-Pakistani natural gas pipeline, the two-day state visit was completely overshadowed by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. On top of this, his absolute unwillingness to engage with the press let alone condemn the invasion deepened the already exposed crack between Pakistan and the United States. When the Taliban ran roughshod over America’s Afghani state-building project in August 2021, Prime Minister Khan called the hostile takeover of a democratically elected state “Breaking the Chain of Slavery”. All of this has only contributed to President Joe Biden keeping Khan on hold and refusing to take the traditional leader’s call since coming to office in January 2021. Due to the continued marginalisation by its traditional geostrategic partners. Pakistan has increasingly turned towards deepening its relationship with China and what the Pakistani Foreign Office has termed its “All Weather Strategic Cooperation Partnership”. However, the new $3 Billion loan Pakistan has been hoping to secure has only been complicated by its diminishing foreign reserves and inability to return loans taken in the past.
On top of these deeply interwoven geopolitical tensions, the situation on the ground has not been made any easier. In December Pakistan’s international reputation took a massive hit with the lynching of a Sri Lankan for alleged blasphemy. Resulting in the renewed push to repeal Blasphemy Laws and those related to it such as the Anti-Ahmadiyya Laws which has repeatedly proven to be a non-starter with Khan’s more conservative backers. All of these developments have resulted in, the US Commission on International Religious Freedom’s 2020 Annual Report identifying Pakistan as a worst violator of religious freedom and designated it as one of 10 Countries of Particular Concern (CPCs).
On a personal front the accusations of graft by Khan’s political allies, reaching high as his cabinet as disclosed by the Panama Papers in 2021, has been a thorn the Prime Minister has simply not been able to remove.
What next?
With the no-confidence motion to be held on the 25th of March, and should the opposition be able to hold their ground and prevent defectors from losing their nerve. It is a mathematical inevitability that Prime Minister Khan will be just another in a long list of political aspirants who have failed to outlast their tenure. The question and challenges that face the Pakistani people are deep and wide-ranging for many of those in the join-opposition have murky personal records themselves further obfuscated by the revelations in the Panama Papers mentioned above.
What is certain is that should Khan lose the vote he will simply become the leader of the largest opposition group and take over the role of leader of the opposition. While this may be adequate to keep the usurpers from splintering from the on-set. It is wholly inadequate to form a stable government capable of tackling the myriad geo-strategic problems let alone those with an individual face attached to it such as the murder of health workers by Islamic fundamentalists who question the merits of vaccination. One last faction the whole of Pakistan must keep in mind is its all-powerful army which will be keeping a very close eye on developments and may choose to draw inspiration from putsches that have been all too common should its interest be compromised.
