40 days in a normal year, by the end of the century, this figure is due to between 80 and 170 days, based on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions. In the southern tip of the south island and several other regions, there is a major likelihood that marine heat waves may last for more than a year, NIWA revealed. The organisation also found that the severity of future marine heat waves will also increase within the range of 20 per cent, in the best case, and 100 per cent, in the worst case, by 2100.
“The impacts of climate change are happening all around us and New Zealand isn’t immune. We’re just coming off the back of one of our most intense marine heat waves, like what we experienced in 2017. Our work indicates that this will start to become the norm as time goes on,” Dr Erik Behrens, Ocean Modeller at NIWA, said. “Marine heat waves can have significant impacts both at sea and on land. They kill off corals, disturb ecosystems, and can also pose a problem for fishing and aquaculture, as well as contributing to land heat waves and climate extremes across the country.”
According to Dr Behrens, there is a noteworthy disparity between regions, in terms of the intensity, frequency and the duration of warming seas, which are expected to get much bigger in some coastal areas. “This is important to know so we can focus our efforts in helping marine ecosystems adapt to these changing conditions,” he noted.
