In the aftermath of Saturday’s general election, New Zealand’s centre-right National Party emerges as the frontrunner to lead the next government, though final results are pending. The National Party secured 50 seats, with the right-wing ACT Party clinching 11, yielding a slender one-seat majority in the 121-seat parliament according to provisional figures from the Electoral Commission.
However, the fate of the government formation rests on approximately 567,000 special votes, constituting around 20% of the total ballots, which are yet to be tabulated. The official outcome is slated for release on November 3, historically, conservative parties have experienced slight seat losses in the final count.
Should such adjustments transpire, National may seek the support of populist New Zealand First and its leader, Winston Peters, to solidify their position.
Christopher Luxon, National’s leader, emphasized that he awaits the conclusive tally before initiating discussions with both ACT and New Zealand First.
As the process unfolds, the incumbent Labour Party will continue its role as a caretaker government until the new administration is formalized. Within this framework, a caretaker government can maintain regular governance operations but is restrained from making substantial decisions, barring instances of emergencies or crises.
Upon receipt of the special votes, National will ascertain the number of seats required to forge a government and subsequently embark on the official negotiation process for either coalition or supply and confidence agreements with ACT and, potentially, New Zealand First.
While Luxon expresses a desire for a government to be established prior to the APEC leaders’ meeting commencing on November 11, he acknowledges that this timeline hinges on the course of negotiations and the special vote count.
Parliament is mandated to convene within six weeks of the official election outcome; however, no specific deadline governs the formation of a government.
The appointment of ministers will be deferred until a new government assumes power, and these roles are expected to be integral to National’s negotiation efforts. Notably, Nicola Willis, National’s finance spokesperson, is widely tipped to assume the role of Minister of Finance. Additionally, both New Zealand First’s Winston Peters and ACT’s deputy leader Brooke van Velden are being considered for the pivotal role of Minister of Foreign Affairs.
