The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday, 19 March, that global trade growth is likely to slow down during ’26. This was soon after a stronger-than-expected performance during ’25. The WTO warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict may add further pressure on global trade.
In the latest Global Trade Outlook & Statistics report, the WTO forecast that in a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, global merchandise trade growth may slow down to 1.9% during ’26 from 4.6% achieved in ’25. However, it’s forecast to rebound to 2.6% in ’27.
Commercial services trade growth is predicted to ease to 4.8% in 2026. Thereafter, it is expected to accelerate again to 5.1% in ’27. Consolidated, goods & services trade is forecast to grow 2.7% in ’26 compared with 4.7% in ’25, the report said.
Global GDP growth is projected to moderate slightly, from 2.9% in ’25 to 2.8% in both ’26 & ’27, the report added.
However, the WTO warned that these baseline projections may deteriorate if the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy markets.
The United States and Israel launched massive military offensives on Iran on Saturday, 28 February ’26. This has disrupted global shipping, sending crude oil prices soaring and shaking the global economy.
European gas and crude oil prices rose sharply in early trading on Thursday, 19 March. The Dutch TTF benchmark is a key reference for European gas supply contracts. It then surged more than 30% to USD 82 (€70.7) per megawatt-hour at the open. This was before easing to around USD 78 (€67) per megawatt-hour. This price has more than doubled from around USD 37 (€32) per megawatt-hour before the conflict began.
Crude oil prices also moved higher. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to above USD 116 per barrel in early trading.
If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain elevated throughout ’26, world merchandise trade growth may be reduced by 0.5 percentage points to a mere 1.4% in ’26. Services trade may also grow at a slower rate of 4.1%. Global GDP growth may be cut by 0.3 percentage points, the report added.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala shared that the outlook reflects the resilience of global trade. Trade in high-technology products, in addition to digitally delivered services, supported this. Additionally, there have been adaptations in supply chains and efforts to avoid tit-for-tat retaliation on tariffs.
However, Okojo-Iweala cautioned against further pressure from the Middle East conflict on global trade. She added that there were potential spillovers for food security and cost pressures on consumers and businesses.
The WTO’s new chief economist, Robert Staiger, told a press conference that the unusually strong trade growth in ’25 was mainly driven by the frontloading of imports in North America. This was in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs as well as a surge in AI-related goods.
Staiger added that the two forces are unlikely to persist through 2026.
However, the WTO economists still see potential upside if the Middle East conflict is short-lived and AI-related spending remains strong throughout ’26 and into ’27. This may lift merchandise trade growth by 0.5% points to around 2.4% in ’26 and 2.7% in ’27.
Under the baseline scenario, Asia is expected to lead merchandise trade growth during ’26. Imports may rise by 3.3% and exports may rise by 3.5%. South America is also projected to post strong export growth of 3.5%.
In contrast, North America’s import growth may remain flat at 0.3%. Europe’s exports are forecast to stagnate at 0.5%. The Middle East is expected to witness a sharp slowdown in exports to 0.6%.
This report also highlighted continued disruptions to global transport & services trade linked to the Middle East conflict, which are expected to further impact export levels in the region and contribute to the overall stagnation in global trade.
