Predicting flooding and droughts in the UK

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Science & Technology (Commonwealth Union) – A new initiative, announced by Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle aims to make it easier for scientists to predict where future flooding and droughts will occur in the UK. By utilizing cutting-edge technology and real-time data, the project will assist key organizations, such as local authorities and the Environment Agency, in mitigating the worst effects of extreme weather on communities. It was stated that it will help save lives, protect homes and businesses, and reduce the financial burden of such events on the UK economy, which is estimated to be £740 million annually.

The Floods and Droughts Research Infrastructure, spearheaded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), is supported by £40 million in funding. This initiative will establish the first nationwide network dedicated to understanding the effects of extreme weather across the UK, identifying where these incidents are likely to occur, and preparing strategies to minimize their impact.

Forecasting floods and droughts is a significant challenge due to the complexities of Earth’s climate, which are further exacerbated by climate change. Researchers will leverage advanced technologies, including sensors and real-time computer tracking, alongside extensive data sets such as river profiles and near real-time information on atmospheric conditions, ground saturation, water movement, abstraction, and storage. Combined, these resources will provide a clearer understanding of where and when extreme weather events are likely to happen.

As floods cause significant damage to communities by destroying homes, public infrastructure, and livelihoods, such as farming, which ultimately leads to higher costs for consumers the need for enhanced warning systems is essential. Similarly, droughts severely affect the water supply and the UK ecosystem, disrupting wildlife and their natural habitats that depend on consistent rainfall.

Researchers will be stationed at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology’s offices across Great Britain, with additional contributions from experts at the British Geological Survey, University of Bristol, and Imperial College London.

The results from this project will be shared with key organizations like the Environment Agency to guide the UK’s response to extreme weather. It is also set to serve as a central hub for researchers to explore new innovations, with discoveries being shared globally, reinforcing the UK’s position as a leader in this field.

Science and Technology Secretary, Peter Kyle, says “Flooding and droughts can devastate UK communities, from leaving people stranded, to destroying homes, gardens, roads and businesses, and even claiming lives.”

The new initiatives expand on the £5.6 billion government investment in flood prevention between 2021 and 2027. More than 100 coastal and flood risk management projects are set to enhance protection for thousands of people and properties against flooding from the sea, rivers, and reservoirs.

Additionally, the government is set to soon introduce a new Flood Resilience Taskforce to accelerate the implementation of flood defenses, drainage systems, and natural flood management strategies. This effort will ensure future preparedness and contribute to economic growth.

The recent funding builds upon broader UKRI initiatives addressing extreme weather both in the UK and internationally, including providing support to businesses to mitigate related risks.

This includes a project funded by NERC that utilizes mathematical models to connect the frequency and intensity of storms in Northern Europe, enhancing the accuracy of storm-related risk pricing. Additionally, the Lisflood-FP computer model, developed by the University of Bristol, has enabled over one million Zambian farmers to protect themselves against drought risks by providing daily rainfall estimates across Africa.

Another team at Bristol has been at the forefront of developing high-resolution flood prediction models, leading to the creation of Fathom, a spin-out company generating more than £4 million in annual revenue. Their work has significantly improved flood risk management for infrastructure worth over $1 trillion, benefiting both the UK and other countries worldwide.

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