Around the world, many infectious disease outbreaks are due to the population growth and climatic conditions. A new study sheds light on the limited availability of software tools which can accurately forecast their risks.
In the Lancet Planetary health, recently a study was published which was led by UF medical geographers SADIE RYAN and CAT LIPPI, where it highlights the urgent need for more diverse and accessible software tools to predict risk associated with climate- sensitive infectious diseases.
Based on climate and epidemiological data, the study indicated that only 37 fully developed software tools exist which can accurately predict the risk of climate- sensitive infectious diseases (CSID’s)
Among tools, there is a flagrant disparity. A majority (81%) focus on “vector-borne” diseases that are transmitted to humans by mosquitos, such as dengue fever and malaria.
Since rising temperatures and new patterns of precipitation, influence the reproduction and survival rates of diseases- carrying ticks and mosquitos, prevents and control vector- borne CSIDs remains crucial.
However, a batch of other environmental conditions linked to climate act, which increases threats to public health. Severe droughts and floods are on the rise, which affects the patterns in waterborne or foodborne infectious diseases.
An increase in respiratory diseases, such as influenza are due to the changes in climate and air quality. Due to the climate change, there are many infectious agents which are sensitive. To model them we don’t have enough developed software tools, said study co-author Cat Lippi, a postdoctoral researcher in Ryan’s lab group. Promoting the creation of novel tools will help to find out, when and where disease outbreaks occur.
Ryan, a principal investigator in the Emerging Pathogens Institute, said since we are in a time of increasing awareness of the links between health and climate, the resources and capacity to develop these types of modeling tools are scares.
Ryan’s main aims is to inform public health planning and policy. Her research investigates how to manage infectious disease risk and how to control the disease outbreaks.
In a changing world, we will continue to experience shifting risks of infectious diseases, says Ryan.
“A key element of the research, to anticipate these shifts, we provide a part of the toolkit, allowing for adaptation of strategies and informing decision makers across the realms of health and environmental interventions.”
Studies indicate that, software tools are freely available online, for public health planning it provides a valuable open access resource.
The guidance which is provided by the study will benefit the public health researches. With intentions and accuracy, new tools must be developed to ensure we are prepared for the future.
