If Europe is serious about disconnecting with Russian oil, it has a chance to demonstrate moral leadership in response to a crisis, to back up its lofty rhetoric with action, and to show that Europeans are not hypocrites. But they are simply living in a different world away from reality. Now that geopolitics is being remade, a realistic united Europe is more necessary than ever. If Europe is going to rise to the occasion, it must figure out how to act effectively and understand the challenges the other world is facing. For far too long, Western countries, led by the US, have slapped sanctions on governments without consulting their economically weaker allies or studying their impact on other countries. The West must come up with ways to reduce the burden of sanctions on others to ensure they have an incentive to tag along.
What will happen if the EU fully bans Russian oil?
It is no secret that the European Union is divided on banning Russian oil imports—and rightly so, because its 27 members buy a quarter of their oil and more 40% of their gas from Russia. In 2021, the EU bought 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Data from the US government show that, in the same year the EU bought 2.3 million barrels a day of Russian oil—almost half of Russian exports. So, a complete freeze of Russian imports would certainly squeeze Russia. But it will also drive oil prices higher, as global supply constricts without Russian oil. The price of a barrel of oil has gone past $110 even as the EU debated its moves. Analysts warn that prices could touch $200; even more dramatically, Russia has warned of $300 oil if the EU halts oil and gas imports.
According to European Central Bank estimates, a 10% gas shortfall will trigger a 0.7% contraction in GDP. A total ban on Russian energy is likely to shove the EU into recession. For Europe to wean itself off Russian energy will take time. European countries will need to find other sources of oil and gas to consider a full Russian oil embargo. To switch out all Russian gas with renewables, the EU would have to install 370 gigawatts of wind farms— more than ten times the wind capacity that the EU wants to install annually by 2030.
Which EU countries imported most oil from Russia
The EU imported 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in 2021, including 0.7 million bpd via pipeline, as well as 1.2 million bpd of refined oil products. Germany has been the top EU buyer of Russian oil, importing 687,000 bpd of crude oil and 149,000 bpd of refined products in November 2021, based on the latest IEA data. Germany was also the largest EU’s importer of Russian pipeline crude, which stood at 555,000 bpd in 2021, while Poland imported 300,000 bpd of pipeline crude.
