The EU scenario
The EU imported approximately 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia in 2021. That amounts to around 40% of the EU’s total gas consumption, with dependency rising to 65% in Germany. Since the start of the war, Russia has exported €63bn worth of fossil fuels, with the EU responsible for buying 71% of that. In sum, by the most conservative estimates, the EU should be able to reduce its reliance on Russian gas by at least one-third by the end of 2022. The Commission has the most ambitious scenario, with the biggest reduction in the shortest amount of time. The other scenarios appear to concur that while a two-thirds reduction of Russian gas by the end of 2022 might be too ambitious, at least a two-thirds reduction by 2025 should be attainable.
Countries who depend on Russian oil:
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 100% | |
| Finland | 100% | |
| North Macedonia | 100% | |
| Moldova | 100% | |
| Latvia | 93% | |
| Serbia | 89% | |
| Bulgaria | 79% | |
| Estonia | 79% | |
| Austria | 64% | |
| Hungary | 61% |
Washington’s purchases of Russian crude oil have almost doubled despite U.S. The United States has revealed its “hypocrisy” by announcing a ban on Russian oil, and pushing EU allies to follow suit, while continuing to purchase it in large quantities.
How Europe’s hypocrisy enables Putin exploit EU’s weaknesses
It’s no secret that Putin wants a 21st century, multi-ethnic empire, in which Ukrainians and Russians, who he describes as “one people”, will live side by side. Of course, an attempt to conquer all of Ukraine would border on lunacy. It is the second-largest country in Europe — more than twice the size of the UK — and Putin’s antics have only galvanized Ukrainian nationalism.
The seven largest emerging economies today — Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey — are projected to overtake the G7 in economic size during the 2030s. These countries want a much bigger say in how the world is run than they have today. Why wouldn’t they, one may ask.
The only real question is how they will opt to expand their influence. Some will likely focus on peaceful means, but others will be tempted to use their increasing military power to shift the status quo in their favour. The Ukraine crisis, then, is not an anomalous conflict, but the beginning of a future for which Europe appears utterly unprepared. The continent has had it so good for so long, it has come to take everything it has for granted, including its security — which is gravely threatened by that very complacency.
