India (Commonwealth) _ Tamil Nadu‘s GDP is expected to exceed $1 trillion in the near future, according to C. Vijayakumar, CEC and MD of HCL Technologies, because of its substantial and varied economic activities that are stocked with all the essential components.
Numerous studies have been conducted in this area, and they have looked at whether or not, given its current poor growth regime, inflation, and rupee depreciation, Tamil Nadu’s GDP would reach US $1 trillion by 2030. Our calculations show that, under the assumptions of 5% annual inflation and 2% annual exchange rate depreciation, the Tamil Nadu economy must expand at a real growth rate of 13.2% annually for eight years in a row, from 2023–2024 to 2030–2031, in order to meet the US $1 trillion goal.
The aim is moved to 2032–2033 with a real growth rate of 10 percent and to 2033–2034 with a growth rate of 9 percent. The latter seems the most likely to be possible. This study models several growth methods to accomplish the goal of 9 percent overall growth in 2033–2034 while accounted for the growth contributions of subsectors. It also looks at whether export promotion will contribute to the US economy’s goal of $1 trillion.
Finally, it shows that the current debt-to-GDP ratio hinders growth. It recommends that in order to guarantee 14 percent nominal (or 9 percent real) economic development, the state should aim for a revenue surplus starting in 2023–2024 so that In order to reach the sustainable threshold debt level of roughly 18 percent in 2034–2035—which will assist the state in reaching the US$ 1 trillion economic target—it keeps its budget deficit to a mere 2 percent.
The economic climate in Tamil Nadu is diverse, encompassing both manufacturing and services sectors. During a panel discussion on Leveraging the Power of IT to Pave the Path to a $1 trillion Dollar Economy in Tamil Nadu, he said that services covered a wide range of industries, including IT, technology, finance, agriculture, and products. The event took place on Thursday at UmagineTN 2025.
Tamil Nadu has far more diverse economic development. Chennai is not the only city experiencing this diversity. At least ten or fifteen cities have first-rate business environments and infrastructure,”” he continued.
But if Tamil Nadu wants to reach a $1 trillion economy, its per capita income needs to reach between $10,000 and $15,000, which is about the level of a middle-class nation, he said.The state’s per capita income is a little more than $4,000.
There are three important things that must occur. One is exceptional talent. The second factor is the availability of top-notch employment. According to him, the third is the alignment of the entire ecosystem—from the government to academia and the people—to a culture of extremely high productivity.
According to Vijayakumar, the State should prioritize high-end talents and high-quality jobs rather than just low-end skills and volumes.
The Centre for Public Finance (CPF) was founded by the Madras School of Economics (MSE) and began operations on April 1, 2021. The Tamil Nadu government provides funding for this center. An advisory council directs its operations.
The Center looks at both theoretical and practical issues of public finance, such as public debt and deficit financing, the interactions between money and government, tax policy and reforms, managing public spending, comparing the costs and benefits of public investments, changing how public enterprises work, transfers between governments, local finances, and environmental issues.
Additionally, it has started roughly ten research projects. C. Rangarajan and K.R. Shanmugam’s study “Achieving One Trillion Dollar Economy for Tamil Nadu: Some Implications and Concerns” is the ninth working paper of the Centre for the Finance of the Public.
This research outlines Tamil Nadu’s calculations for reaching a trillion-dollar economy. It illustrates the necessary pace of growth under different scenarios. We can reach the goal with a real growth rate of 9% until 2033–2034. It also emphasizes how important fiscal stability is to long-term growth.
