By Ashok Sajjanhar
Israel has been fighting with the proxies of Iran, including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and others, since it was subjected to a terrorist attack and the abduction of 250 hostages by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Since then, Israel has been very clear in its objectives: To totally annihilate Hamas so that it is never again able to launch a similar attack against Israel.
Israel has pursued this task with single-minded determination and resolve. The chief of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in an audacious targeted strike when he was participating in the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 31, 2024. Over the last several months, Israel has succeeded in eliminating most of the top commanders of Hamas. With the top leadership of Hamas as well as much of its weaponry and assets wiped out, Israel has been able to severely emasculate the threat from Hamas for the foreseeable future. These operations unfortunately led to the death of several thousand innocent men, women and children. In addition, more than 100 hostages still continue to be in the custody of Hamas.
Hezbollah, based in southern Lebanon and reputed to be much more lethal, more disciplined, better trained and much better equipped than Hamas, started pounding the northern parts of Israel within a day after the Hamas attack on October 7. Hezbollah’s attacks were sporadic but frequent enough to lead to the displacement of 60,000-70,000 Israelis from their homes in the northern part of the country to temporary shelters far removed from that area. Hezbollah is reported to have fired more than 10,000 rockets and missiles into Israel during the last 11 months.
After having dealt effectively and decisively with Hamas, Israel moved swiftly to neutralise the threat from Hezbollah with the declared objective of pushing the militia away from the southern borders of Lebanon, far enough to the north so that they don’t pose a threat to the Israelis living in the north of Israel. It is in the process of accomplishing that target also through some spectacular measures like the explosion of more than 3,000 pagers and walkie-talkies used by the Hezbollah operatives for privileged communication. This was followed by the liquidation of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, 2024, through a sensational airstrike at the Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut where Nasrallah was holed up in a bunker located 60 feet underground. Using the same playbook as in the case of Hamas, Israel has been able to eliminate most of the top Hezbollah leadership, leaving it impotent to take on Israel in any meaningful manner.
Iran had appeared to show restraint after Haniyeh’s assassination, but this inaction became a source of humiliation and criticism among its own people when Israel dealt a series of devastating blows to Iran’s proxies and closest allies. These shocks and jolts administered by Israel forced Iran to launch a barrage of close to 200 ballistic missiles at three air-bases and Mossad headquarters in Israel. However, no significant damage was caused by these missiles owing to Israel’s defence strategy that combines three systems to provide it comprehensive protection: The Arrow system handles long-range threats, David’s Sling covers mid-range missiles, and the Iron Dome protects against short-range attacks. The lack of damage notwithstanding, Israel vowed revenge after Iran’s missile attack. Netanyahu said that Iran had made a huge mistake and that it would pay for it. The US said Iran would face “severe consequences”.
Prior to September, Iranian leaders had hoped that a war of attrition with Hezbollah would help wear down the Israeli military, which was still fighting a war against Hamas in Gaza. They also relied on Hezbollah and its massive arsenal of rockets and missiles to serve as a major deterrent against direct Israeli attacks on their country’s nuclear and missile facilities. Their fondest hopes and expectations have been belied. Hezbollah today is a much decapitated grouping. It has not been able to live up to its much vaunted public reputation. Much of its arsenal of missiles and rockets has been destroyed by Israel as well as its intelligence and command and control infrastructure. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was elected in July, accused Israel of trying to provoke Iran into a regional war that would also draw in the US.
The region and the world today stand on the edge of a precipice waiting with bated breath for the scale, severity and targets of Israeli retribution against Iran. There has been speculation that Israel would seek a regime change in Iran. This is substantiated by the direct appeal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the people of Iran telling them that their government was not acting in their interest. He condemned the Iranian government for its focus on military ambitions over the well-being of its citizens.
There are reports in the media that Israel could mount an attack against Iran’s nuclear assets (although Tel Aviv has been advised strongly against it by US President Joe Biden) or some strategic oil and gas installations. A disproportionately destructive strike by Israel could result in even more potent retaliatory attacks by Iran. Tehran could also close the 25-mile Strait of Hormuz which would stop the outflow of the Gulf oil to the global markets. This would be a mortal blow not only to the global economy, particularly developing countries, but also to the kingdoms and governments in the Gulf including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and others. This could force countries like the US and other Western nations to enter the fray against Iran with unimaginable, disastrous consequences.
Iran today finds itself in a very vulnerable position. It had hoped to galvanise the Islamic world against Israel. It has miserably failed to do so. In spite of the huge destruction and large-scale killing of thousands of ordinary civilians in Gaza and Lebanon, it has not succeeded in marshalling a significant response from any of the Gulf Arabic nations. In spite of the scathing criticism by the Gulf nations against Israel’s actions at the UN and other international fora, Iran has not been able to mobilise any tangible support in favour of the Palestinian cause or the Hamas and Hezbollah groupings which have been at the forefront in fighting Israel.
From this it is clear that the Gulf countries want peace. They do not wish to engage in a conflict with Israel. The Abraham Accords initiated by US President Donald Trump in 2020 resulted in a number of Gulf nations establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. These countries have tasted the benefits of having strong economic and commercial relations with Israel.
Israel is also a part of the I2U2 initiative as also an indispensable constituent of the IMEC Project. Israel is an important source of technology and innovation and the Gulf nations would like to take advantage of it rather than engulf the region in an inferno of death and destruction. While there was a great deal of rage and fury on the Arab street against Israel in the initial stages of its operations in the Gaza strip, such protests and demonstrations are conspicuous by their absence today even after the killings of Haniyeh, Nasrallah and other high-value assets. None of the extra-regional players like Russia, China or others can be expected to involve themselves directly in the ongoing conflict in the region. Some of them may provide some weaponry and equipment to Iran, but that will not make any material difference to the course of events.
Under these difficult and challenging circumstances, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was forced to come out of his safe hiding place and lead the Friday prayers in Tehran on October 4 after a gap of five years. The intention was to raise the morale of the dejected Iranian people as well as the despondent members of Tehran’s proxies in different parts of the Arabian Peninsula. He justified the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, and warned that Iran will continue to hit back against Israel. With a rifle by his side, Khamenei declared that the Resistance wouldn’t back down and Israel wouldn’t win over Hezbollah and Hamas. He claimed that Iran’s missile attack on Israel was “legal and legitimate” and was the minimum punishment for Israel’s “crimes”.
Iran has been reluctant to enter the conflict with Israel directly. It realises that it does not have the military might, capacity or latest weaponry to take on Israel in a direct conflict. It was banking on inciting the people of the region to force the hands of their governments to intervene militarily in the conflict against Israel. It has failed miserably in this effort. The behaviour and attitude of all the Arab governments over the last one year clearly demonstrated that they will not embark on any kinetic initiative against Israel. Iran has also failed in ensuring that its proxies will be able to keep Israel engaged and degrade its fighting capabilities. It also realises that while none of the regional governments will come to its aid and support, Israel has the total support of the US and several other Western nations like the UK, France, Germany and more.
Iran would hence be well advised to cut its losses and not provoke Israel beyond a point. Iran was forced to launch direct attacks against Israel for the first time in April and then in September this year as otherwise it would have been at a serious risk of losing face and suffering ridicule among its own people and supporters. Even with these attacks, it has not been able to redeem its image and reputation in the world or even its protégés. It can be expected that it will continue to make fiery speeches about standing against Israel for its “assassinations, destruction, bombing and killing of civilians” without provoking any direct confrontation with it.
The future of the ongoing conflict in West Asia hence depends principally on the action that Israel will take against Iran. It can be hoped and expected that Israel’s partners like the US and Western European nations will be able to prevail upon Israel not to undertake a disproportionately destructive strike against Iran’s strategic installations.
Under the above painted scenario it would appear that there is but a slim chance of the conflict in West Asia expanding and escalating into an all-out regional war. For this to come about all regional and external influential actors will need to ensure that the two major protagonists, viz. Israel and Iran, do not cross any of the red lines to envelop the region in an all consuming conflict, the consequences of which are difficult to imagine.
The writer is an executive council member, the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, president, the Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Commonwealth Union’s views.
