Environmental (Commonwealth Union)_ The UK government’s ambitious plan to build 1.5 million new homes by the end of this parliamentary term could see over 100,000 houses constructed in England’s highest-risk flood zones, according to new analysis. Experts warn that such developments could lead to widespread economic damage, render homes uninsurable, and exacerbate flood risks for existing communities.
Building in flood-prone areas is generally discouraged, but Richard Dawson, a climate adaptation expert at Newcastle University, notes that housebuilding in high-risk flood zones continues at a steady rate. Based on recent trends, around 7% of new properties have been built on the most flood-prone land designated as flood zone 3, which, if continued, could result in 105,000 new homes being constructed in such areas by 2029.
The revelations come as the government announced an additional £250 million for flood defenses, supplementing the £2.4 billion previously allocated. However, insurance experts and environmental scientists argue that this will not offset the dangers of increased construction in flood-prone regions.
Rising Risks and Industry Concerns
Flood risk experts, including insurance industry leaders, have urged the government to reconsider its approach. Jason Storah, CEO of UK & Ireland General Insurance at Aviva, emphasized that increasing development in flood zones not only puts new homes at risk but also places additional strain on existing flood defenses and drainage systems.
“Building in flood zones should be prevented from increasing,” Storah stated. “It places immense pressure on already stretched infrastructure, which is unable to cope with worsening extreme weather events.”
A regional analysis of housebuilding trends, overlaid with flood risk maps, shows that the most significant developments are planned in London, the South East, and the East of England—areas already deemed at high to medium risk of flooding. The East Midlands, Yorkshire, and Humber alone account for 52% of all properties currently exposed to flood risk, and climate change projections indicate that the threat will only intensify.
Balancing Growth and Climate Resilience
Labour’s housing targets have driven proposals to streamline planning laws, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves calling for the removal of environmental regulations to accelerate construction. She has suggested that reducing planning “red tape” will help developers “focus on getting things built and stop worrying about the bats and the newts.”
However, environmental experts argue that existing regulations are in place to safeguard communities. “These processes and principles ensure we have a good environment and protect people from unnecessary risk,” Dawson explained. “Ripping them up to meet arbitrary housebuilding targets is counterproductive.”
Climate Change and Future Flooding
The UK is already seeing increasing instances of extreme weather, with the Environment Agency warning that 6.3 million homes and businesses are currently at risk of flooding. Projections indicate that by 2050, one in four properties (around 8 million) could face flood threats, with floodplain risk from rivers and seas expected to rise by 73% between 2036 and 2069.
Surface water flooding is emerging as a particularly urgent threat. Environment Agency data shows that 4.6 million properties are currently vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall, a 43% increase since the last assessment in 2018.
Calls for a Smarter Housing Strategy
Insurance leaders are calling for a three-step climate-resilient approach:
- Build in the right places – Avoiding high-risk flood zones.
- Use the right materials – Ensuring homes are constructed with flood-resistant materials.
- Plan with resilience in mind – Incorporating flood defenses and sustainable drainage systems as standard.
The government, however, insists that its planning policies prioritize flood safety. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government stated:
“We do not recognize these figures. Any new developments should be built away from areas at the highest risk of flooding. This government will maintain the highest levels of flood protection while delivering 1.5 million new homes.”
Despite a revision of planning policies in December 2024, no legal measures currently prevent developers from building on the highest-risk flood zones, leaving the UK vulnerable to future climate-related disasters.
As the housing crisis and climate crisis collide, the government faces mounting pressure to ensure that its drive for new homes does not come at the expense of long-term resilience and safety.
