Pakistan (Commonwealth Union)_ In a sharp escalation of regional tensions, senior Chinese analyst Victor Gao has issued a strong warning to India over its recent move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. Gao, Vice President of the Center for China and Globalization, cautioned that China could retaliate by leveraging control over the Brahmaputra River, hinting at a potential new front in South Asia’s water disputes. Speaking in support of Pakistan during an interview with a news channel, Gao stated that Beijing would not remain silent if India sought to curtail Pakistan’s water supply. He described any Indian action to restrict water flow as a threat to the allied integrity of China and Pakistan. “If India abuses those downstream,” he warned, “it should be prepared for similar responses.”
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Gao’s comments follow India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on cross-border terrorism from Pakistan. The treaty, brokered in 1960 with the World Bank’s mediation, regulates water-sharing of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. Islamabad has condemned the move as unilateral and illegal, warning of dire consequences. Victor Gao’s remarks have reignited fears that China could use the Brahmaputra River, known in Tibet as Yarlung Tsangpo, as a strategic tool against India. He suggested that if India disrupts the flow of water to Pakistan, China could consider suspending or manipulating Brahmaputra flows into India, escalating the situation into a broader regional crisis.
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Gao’s statements underscored China’s longstanding alliance with Pakistan. He reaffirmed the ironclad nature of the bilateral relationship, asserting that China would safeguard Pakistan’s integrity, sovereignty, and access to natural resources. His warning marks one of the clearest signals yet that China may be willing to use hydrological leverage in support of its South Asian ally. Hydrological experts and defense analysts view Gao’s warning as a critical development. China, already in control of the Brahmaputra’s upper stretches, has built major dams in Tibet and recently has withheld vital hydrological data from India. Such data is crucial for managing water flows, especially during monsoon months when floods threaten India’s northeastern regions.
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Further compounding concerns, China has accelerated construction on the world’s largest hydroelectric project near the Indian border on the Brahmaputra. Although Beijing insists that the dam will not impact downstream nations, Indian experts contend that this infrastructure grants China disproportionate control over the river, which poses both environmental and strategic risks. Pakistan has seized on the moment to press its narrative. Rana Ihsaan Afzal, an aide to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, warned in a televised interview that if India blocks water, China could follow suit. “If this happens, then the entire world will be in a war,” he said, echoing fears that water could become a weapon of geopolitical coercion.
India, however, has pushed back against these claims. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma dismissed the threat, asserting that only 30–35% of the Brahmaputra’s total flow originates in China. The rest, he said, is generated by India’s monsoon-fed tributaries, making the river predominantly Indian in its volume and impact. “Even if China reduces the flow, it might help us by reducing the annual floods in Assam,” Sarma argued. He criticized Pakistan for invoking China in a scare narrative and affirmed that India is not as vulnerable as its neighbor suggests. “India nourishes the Brahmaputra. We are not dependent on anyone,” he declared.
Gao’s statements, combined with Pakistan’s alarm and China’s dam-building activity, have stirred fresh tensions in an already volatile region. With India holding firm on its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan seeking international support, observers warn that water diplomacy may soon become one of South Asia’s most dangerous flashpoints. As strategic rivers like the Indus and Brahmaputra become central to political maneuvering, the region faces increasing uncertainty. The question now looms: what happens if China suspends Brahmaputra flows to India? The answer may shape the next chapter of South Asia’s geopolitical rivalry.
