Commonwealth_ The old maxim that time heals all wounds is not working for Canadian vacationers in terms of wanting to go to the United States. Canadian travel to America has declined steeply in 2025, with year-to-date visits 25.2% below. Car arrivals, traditionally a reliable segment, have seen a particularly precipitous 37% drop-off in the month of July alone, according to figures supplied by Tourism Economics.
The drop is not simply due to economic factors. While Canadians are concerned with their economics, their hesitation to cross the border has been fuelled by a mixture of economic policy and political rhetoric out of Washington. The sour mood has gained intensity over the past year, bringing about a broad shift in travel patterns.
Surveys suggest that Canadian policy and U.S. tariffs are having a major impact on Canadian decision-making. American political rhetoric is also playing a growing role in the trend, compelling many to rethink previous automatic pre-planned travel with cross-border trips. Instead of profiting from the falling cost of travel to the U.S.—e.g., cheaper gas, hotels, air travel, and automobiles—Canadians increasingly prefer to remain at home or spend their foreign vacations elsewhere. Mexico, the Caribbean, and Western Europe are prime destinations.
The concern is not exclusive to Canada. Tourism watchers note that visitors from Western Europe and Asia have also reduced travel to the United States because of issues related to geopolitics and policy. Overseas arrivals in the U.S. fell for three months in a row, with July alone recording a 3.1% decline. International arrivals year to date are down by 1.6%. Analysts have since reduced earlier estimates. Whereas they had earlier expected a projected 9% expansion in 2025, they now project an 8.2% decline.
Adding to the challenges is the imposition of a new $250 visa integrity charge, which starts Oct. 1. The charge will be levied on the majority of applicants for nonimmigrant visas and tacked onto existing visa costs. The policy will affect visitors from countries such as China, Mexico, and Brazil and add as much as 130% to the initial cost of visiting the United States. Detractors claim that the added cost will discourage potential travelers at a time when American cities are preparing to welcome global events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the nation’s 250th anniversary in 2026, and the 2028 Summer Olympics.
United States tourism commissions are responding to the shift. In Boston, 2025 international visitor forecasts have been undone, from a projected 15% increase to a 10% decrease. Thus, local tourist authorities are focussing their efforts on recovering in source markets like Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Toronto in September will host a critical event for this effort.
Border zones are also experiencing significant challenges. In Rochester, New York, where Canadians had long accounted for 12% to 15% of the city’s tourism, local officials report that many travelers from abroad are staying home or travelling somewhere other than the United States. Official summer figures have not been released, but early indications are of subpar Canadian traffic.
The overall outlook for travel to the United States in 2025 is becoming increasingly uncertain. Sentiment about visiting the United States has gone sour with key overseas markets, and prospective policy actions promise to help ignite the trend. With Canadians—a historically reliable source of travellers—wandering elsewhere, the spillover may be felt across the tourist economy for months to come. As destinations look ahead to what others have called an autumn of discontent, the industry has its work cut out in rebuilding consumer confidence and closing the ground lost amid political, economic, and policy headwinds.
