After extraordinary previous years, 2025 is unlikely to be a quiet year for container shipping. The global container shipping sector has navigated unprecedented market swings over recent years. The lingering impact of the pandemic and supply chain shifts due to sanctions & extreme weather, besides rerouting through the Red Sea, have all directed the course of the sector.
The general shipping outlook highlights that geopolitics will dominate 2025, bringing ongoing uncertainty. The potential resumption of the Suez Canal route will be the most important factor for 2025. This year began with 85-90% of container volume still avoiding the Red Sea. However, if Houthi attacks remain absent for longer, with stability returning to the Middle East, container liners may choose to resume transits. Â Nevertheless, recalibrating sailing routes and port operations, besides capacities, is likely to move us well into the year. Meanwhile, import tariffs and potential US actions to curb Chinese dominance in shipbuilding are likely to increase costs and cause shifts in demand as well as changes in sailing schemes, such as port calls and vessel deployment.
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Global container volumes recovered from stronger consumer spending
Global container box trade recovered from the post-pandemic correction in late 2022 & 2023. The recovery of purchasing power supported an increase in consumer spending on goods. These developments pushed container throughput across the globe to an average growth of 6% during 2024. A thriving economy, coupled with frontloading to anticipate trade tariffs, sent throughput growth in US ports on both east and west coasts into double digits. During this time, Chinese ports continued to handle significantly more containers. Frontloading still continued at the start of the new year. Europe showed a bleaker picture, although figures signaled a positive development, especially compared with the sluggish commodity trades.
2025 yet offers some upside for container traffic—headwinds drag on into 2026
Protectionist headwinds are expected to slow container trade later on in 2025, although the year has started on a strong note. The largest port in the US—Long Beach, Los Angeles—has seen a wave of incoming containers. This surge was just before the 10% additional tariff on imports from China came into being. The world’s largest container port, in Shanghai, also reported a strong start to this year, partly driven by strong intra-Asia trade. While some of the stockpiling will likely be reversed later, there’s potential for container volumes to grow some 3% year-on-year, as consumer spending is expected to continue on its rising trend on the back of improved purchasing power.
In 2026, cost-raising tariffs and retaliation are expected to drag on container volumes more severely, potentially leading to a contraction. Supply chain restructuring & adjustment is also expected, which would create resilience.
Container spot rates on its return to ‘normality’
The composite global container index (CCFI) remained elevated throughout 2024 due to longer-than-expected rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This consumed up to 10% extra capacity & resulted in ongoing delays besides congestion. Nevertheless, spot rates on the Shanghai-Europe route decreased to around $3,000 per 40 ft container in February. This drop translates to a real-term pre-pandemic rate of less than $2,500. This result probably indicates that price premiums for short-term contracts may have diminished significantly compared to previous levels. Spot rates in the US moved in the same direction. While the low-season effect explains some of this, the supply balance is also weakening.
Contract freight rates are still elevated, providing comfort for 2025 results
Roughly half of the global container volume is contracted out to shippers, usually in contracts lasting a span of 1 to 2 years, besides also 6 months, given the current level of uncertainty. Â This is likely where most of the liner profits will come from during 2025.
