The British economy is expected to continue growing by the end of the decade. It reflects growth in GDP per capita—the proxy for living standards. However, it will be the second weakest in the G7 over the next five years. As a result, experts predict that the country will drop in the rankings, lagging behind Malta by 2035.
This data was divulged by the latest edition of the World Economic League Table (WELT) 2026. International economic forecasters at the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) produce WELT. The WELT tracks the size of different global economies. It projects changes over the next 15 years, up to 2040.
Data indicates that global GDP growth is expected to reach 2.6% in real terms in 2025. This value reflects a slight easing of 0.3% from a previous 2.8% reflected last year in 2024. Elevated uncertainty stemming from shifts in the global trade order, mainly due to increases in U.S. trade tariffs, has weighed on activity.
In contrast with other forecasters, the CEBR expects global GDP growth to ease marginally to 12.5% during 2026. The spillover effects of higher U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on many of the U.S.’s trading partners, besides global trade and investment.
The below-consensus outlook for the U.S. reinforces this global economic outcome. Tech-driven capital spending is forecast to remain supportive towards cushioning the impaired global economic position. On the other hand, a weaker consumer environment and the emergence of a dual-speed economy are expected to constrain the overall pace of growth.
Long-range economic projections indicate that China is now forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy within the next 2 decades, by 2045. This timescale is earlier than envisaged last year. It has been driven primarily by downgrades to the U.S. long-term outlook. This change is not due to a material structural improvement in China’s own performance.
