Over the past week, global aviation has experienced a surge in cancellations and last-minute re-planning due to the escalating crisis in the Middle East. As a consequence, airlines worldwide are now rerouting planes around affected countries, leaving an estimated 1,500 flights out of service over the course of four days.
These changes have not distributed their impact evenly. For example, Indian low-cost airline IndiGo was one of the highest-volume affected carriers, with over 500 international flights cancelled between February 28 and March 3. While many foreign airlines are working quickly to fill voids that have been created by cancelled flights, many full-service carriers such as Air India are also making adjustments to their schedules by offering additional seats from major hubs such as Delhi to long-haul destinations like Toronto, Frankfurt, and Paris to accommodate diverted or stranded customers.
Airlines in North America are starting to come together to improve service quality. As an example, at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport, Air Canada added additional nonstop service from March 7 through March 21 to/from New Delhi to reduce congestion at the airport and provide better options for passengers unable to make a connection due to long wait times at their original departure point.
The closing of parts of the Gulf airspace creates challenges for airlines operating scheduled flights between Europe and Asia, as well as North America and Asia, that rely on the main routes of that air traffic flow. After airspace closures, airlines are required to file long, fuel-inefficient diversions, which often take hours to complete and add tens of thousands of dollars in fuel costs for each flight that needs to be diverted and impact crew legality issues and aircraft repositioning. Industry observers have noted that the overall impact on the global aviation system due to the closing of the Gulf airspace is one of the largest aviation shocks experienced since the COVID-19 shutdown, with airspace closures in Iran, Iraq, Israel, and some parts of the United Arab Emirates forcing airlines to either cancel or reroute flights.
The visible discomfort on-site is acute. Several cancellations were reported in Mumbai on the same day, resulting in some temporary pauses on further diversions due to already occupied parking bays and stands—airports, runways, and ramp capacities are all at risk of being overwhelmed when diverted aircraft from airlines have a large number of planes diverted to them. Travellers have been able to get on last-minute flights for substantially higher amounts than in the previous year due to demand exceeding supply.
Adaptability for operations is happening quickly. Aside from the creation of additional flights in the expected schedule, airlines are providing special flights for unaccompanied passengers, re-allocating wide-body aircraft from different routes, and setting up manual re-booking agencies to help individuals who are not already confirmed on existing flights. For customers, the immediate course of action is to check for notifications from their airline regularly, keep their proof of identification with them, and look for alternative routing, as many connecting itineraries that used to route through the Gulf will now route through other cities such as Delhi, Istanbul, and possibly Athens and Doha, where service is still possible.
The implications of this situation for the economy are quite large. Higher fuel costs and delays in schedules have led airlines to burn through cash; airports are collecting congestion fees and losing retail sales from fewer transit passengers; and cargo flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, are causing supply chain disruptions and problems in oil prices. Analysts believe that some suspensions will not last very long, but resuming normal route operations depends on diplomatic and military developments not related to aviation operations.
In any case, the current situation demonstrates how rapidly changing world events can influence the aviation industry. A single geopolitical incident can cause the aviation industry to redraw its entire airspace in a matter of hours or days and transform the summertime schedule into a tactical chess match.
