By Elishya Perera
(CWBN)_In 1978, NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler proposed a theory describing a self-sustaining cascading collision of space debris in low Earth orbit (LEO). Known as the Kessler syndrome, the theory discussed a risk of outer space being overcrowded by active satellites and space debris, thereby resulting in collisions between these objects, which can disrupt an active satellite or produce more debris as a result of these high-energy shocks.
They pose a further threat to ground populations as they may fall randomly to the surface of the Earth. This is a scenario in which the density of objects in LEO is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade where each collision generates space debris that increases the likelihood of further collisions. And any one of objects could knock out a satellite, a launching rocket, or even an orbiting space station with humans inside.
In LEO, this population of objects, called the orbital population, increases from year to year. Less than ten percent of the orbital population is active satellites. The rest is artificial objects in orbit but no longer used for anything, known as space debris.
According to the CEO of Rocket Lab, the startup company is already experiencing the effects of overcrowding in outer space. CEO Peter Beck said that the sheer number of objects in space right now is making it more difficult to find a clear path for rockets to launch new satellites. In September this year, it was reported that The International Space Station had narrowly avoided a collision with space debris for the third time this year, which is an unprecedented rate. Describing the low Earth orbit as “an orbital space junk yard”, NASA stated that there have been three “high concern potential conjunctions” with space debris.
A police force in space
One of the major issues is that outer space is largely unregulated. In January 1967, the Outer Space Treaty, the primary international document regulating activity in outer space, was signed by the United States, United Kingdom and then- Soviet Union. However, this was agreed at a time when only two countries were going to outer space. Half a century later, many more countries are expanding and intensifying their exploration missions and private companies are commercialising space travel. On the other hand, similar to international law governing high seas, there is no regulatory authority to enforce this treaty. Therefore, apart from sanctions, an individual, state or institution could violate the treaty without consequences.
Meanwhile, even though the U.S. Military functions as the world’s traffic cop since it operates extensive databases of active satellites and space junk, the NASA and military officials are pressing for the US government to delegate these duties over to the Department of Commerce. At the hearing last week, NASA chief Jim Bridenstine pressed senators to fund that effort. He said, “We’re providing global space situational awareness and space traffic management to the world for free. We need to take that data, combine it with commercial and international data to create a single integrated space picture that can be shared with the world”.
On 11th February, President Trump released a budget proposal that included a $15 million request for the Office of Space Commerce to be able to “respond to current and future National Space Policy Directives”. While 105 countries have signed the treaty to date, Beck believes that global regulation of space traffic has lagged far behind technology.
