VICTORIA, B.C. (CU)_Many countries in different parts of the world are reporting a resurgence of COVID-19 infections, just as some countries reopen borders and remove public-health measures. In Canada, the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 has fueled what experts call the most uncertain wave of the pandemic to date. However, those experts who have worked to prepare Canadians for what may lie ahead say they are now flying blind, as several provincial and territorial governments scale back on Coronavirus data consolidation and reporting.
Many jurisdictions, including British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba, have not only stopped testing broadly, but are also limiting the consolidation and reporting of data like hospitalisation indicators. Some of them have even reduced the public reporting frequency from daily to weekly saying there is now more value in observing trends over time, instead than daily fluctuations. However, public health experts disagree.
“The absolute worst time to change your data streams is on the rise of a new variant, and that’s exactly where we are,” Sally Otto, a professor at the University of B.C. and a member of the independent B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group, said. “I can’t make model predictions about how many hospitalizations are coming up because I don’t actually know how many people got infected in the first [Omicron] wave, and when, and how high their immunity is.”
She went on to note that it would be accurate to say the public health experts have no idea of whether or not Canada is going to see the same hospitalisations as the country’s first wave, or less. “It could be substantially more and we’re going into this not knowing.”
In its 20th report issued on 6 April, the independent modelling group of which Dr. Otto is a member called the BA.2-driven wave the “most uncertain point so far in the pandemic for modelling” owing to scant data on recent infections and the extent of immunity as the country heads into this latest wave. The group, which consists of experts in epidemiology, mathematics and data analysis, say they cannot study the effectiveness of vaccines and booster doses against infection, or hospitalization, without adequate testing. Furthermore, they acknowledged that they do not have a good sense of susceptibility to reinfection, since it relies on knowledge of past infection.
“We cannot handle and mitigate risks that we don’t know are coming,” Dr. Otto said.
