Agriculture and climate change, New Zealand (Commonwealth Union) – Glacial flooding, also known as glacial outburst flooding, is a natural hazard occurring when large volumes of water are rapidly released from a glacier or ice sheet. This phenomenon is often caused by the melting of ice and snow, which can be triggered by a variety of factors such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, or changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Glacial flooding can result in significant damage to infrastructure, property, and human life, as the sudden and powerful release of water can cause flash floods, landslides, and other types of erosion. In addition to its immediate impact, glacial flooding can also have long-term consequences on the environment and surrounding ecosystems, including changes in water quality, habitat destruction, and altered sedimentation patterns. As the effects of climate change continue to shape the world’s glaciers and ice sheets, the risk of glacial flooding is likely to increase, making it an important area of study for researchers, policymakers, and communities at risk.
University of Canterbury School of Earth and Environment Senior Lecturer Dr Thomas Robinson stated that glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may occur with no warning as a natural dam fails.
“Continued ice loss and expansion of glacial lakes due to climate change means glacial outburst floods are a globally important natural hazard that requires urgent attention to minimise future loss of life,” said Dr Robinson.
He is the corresponding author for an article appearing in international journal Nature Communications that for the 1st time noted the locations and communities across the world which are largely in danger from this rising natural hazard.
“Our research is novel because it identifies the populations who live downstream from these lakes and how vulnerable they are,” he says. “Since 1990 the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly. We show that currently 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential glacial lake outburst floods.”
“People in High Mountains Asia are most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with about 1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake.”
The new study noted that over half of the globes exposed population are located in just 4 countries, that are India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. “While High Mountains Asia has the highest potential for glacial lake outburst flood impacts in India, Pakistan and China, we highlight the Andes, which affects people living in Peru and Bolivia in particular, as a region of concern with similar potential for GLOF impacts but fewer published research studies,” Dr Robinson says.
People residing in the Andes region face further vulnerability to the effects of a such a tragic occurrence, as indicated by the researchers’ measures of corruption, poverty, education levels and other factors. In comparison, New Zealand is ranked with the lowest vulnerability.
Dr Robinson indicated that it was vital that we work closely with the exposed communities noted in the study to avoid large disasters.
“We are keen to work with national and local governments in these high-risk areas to help identify and explore potential mitigation options, evacuation drills and early warning systems for flooding. It’s about working alongside them so they can minimise the risk to human lives.
“We hope our research can be used to help protect vulnerable communities, and help local communities, governments, and international groups like the United Nations prioritise the most dangerous locations.”
The research is based on the most recent published data on lake conditions, exposure and vulnerability data, and is an image of the risk faced in 2020. The researchers also plan to look into how that risk has been altered in the years since then, and what can possibly occur in the future.
