Can leadership save the Amazon and lead global environmental change?

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Environmental (Commonwealth Union) _ As global attention turns toward the Amazon, Brazil and Colombia find themselves at the forefront of crucial environmental negotiations. These two South American giants, home to the world’s largest rainforest, are hosting three significant global environmental summits within just over a year. This unique opportunity has the potential to reshape the future of the Amazon and influence global efforts towards net-zero emissions.

At the heart of this opportunity are the visions of two prominent left-wing leaders: Colombia’s progressive president, Gustavo Petro, and Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Both leaders have made substantial efforts to address deforestation, but they diverge on key issues such as oil exploration and the speed of environmental action. If they can align their approaches, Brazil and Colombia could lead the charge in reshaping global environmental priorities.

The Road to Environmental Diplomacy

The upcoming summits—Cop16 in Cali, Colombia, followed by the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, and the Cop30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil—present an unprecedented moment for these two nations. Both Lula and Petro have shown leadership in reducing deforestation, with Brazil achieving a 36% decrease and Colombia cutting it by 49% between 2022 and 2023. Their commitment to zero net deforestation by 2030 is clear, supported by the exceptional work of their environment ministers, Marina Silva in Brazil and Susana Muhamad in Colombia.

Both leaders agree on the importance of involving Indigenous peoples in conservation efforts, recognizing their crucial role in preserving biodiversity and carbon storage. They are united in their acknowledgment of the climate crisis and the need for a strong international response. However, their approaches diverge sharply when it comes to oil and gas exploration.

Differing Visions: Oil and Gas Exploration

Petro has taken a bold stance by committing Colombia to a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty and refusing to issue new licenses for petroleum exploration. He has urged other Amazonian nations to follow suit, though his efforts have not yet gained significant traction. Lula, on the other hand, supports expanding Brazil’s oil production, aiming to make the country the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. He has even backed Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, in exploring the waters near the mouth of the Amazon, a move that has faced resistance from his own environmental team.

Marcio Astrini of the Brazilian Climate Observatory notes that “Colombia is far ahead of Brazil” on fossil fuel policies, suggesting that Petro’s more ambitious climate agenda could challenge Lula to adopt bolder measures. Yet, political realities and personal histories help explain the contrasting approaches. Petro, a former guerrilla fighter and Bogotá’s mayor, leads a relatively new political party shaped by anti-imperialism and a quest for peace. Lula, a former union leader, has served as Brazil’s president three times, with a focus on state-building and economic growth that includes a reliance on fossil fuels.

Bridging the Gap for the Amazon’s Future

Despite their differences, the severity of the climate crisis might push Lula and Petro closer together. Both nations have witnessed firsthand the destructive impact of climate change, with Brazil facing its worst Amazon drought in 45 years and fires that burnt through 5 million hectares of land in August 2023. During his address at the United Nations, Lula emphasized the need for global unity in tackling the climate emergency, while Petro continues to advocate for progressive measures like debt-for-nature swaps and stronger international climate commitments.

Natalie Unterstell, a former Brazilian government adviser, suggests that Colombia’s progressive stance could stimulate Lula to be more ambitious. “This is the last chance. Colombia is standing out,” she says, hinting that Lula could be nudged into action by Petro’s forward-thinking policies.

Challenges and the Need for International Allies

Both Lula and Petro face significant domestic challenges that could limit their ability to drive international change. Petro is grappling with a hostile congress and has threatened to issue the national budget by decree, while Lula faces a dip in approval ratings as he balances contradictory projects such as oil exploration and infrastructure development with environmental goals. Internationally, they are up against powerful forces, with wealthier nations often dominating the global environmental agenda.

However, the diplomatic skills of their environment ministers, especially Susana Muhamad of Colombia, offer hope. Muhamad, who will serve as president of Cop16, has been pushing Indigenous land issues and the need to treat nature and climate as interconnected topics. This strategy could help secure critical support from the international community.

The Amazon’s precarious state—facing rampant deforestation, fires, and the degradation of biodiversity—demands immediate action. The continent has lost 95% of its wildlife population since 1970 and remains the deadliest region for environmental defenders. Carlos Nobre, an expert on the Amazon, warns that the region is approaching a tipping point, urging Brazil and Colombia to work together to host the upcoming summits with strong leadership.

A Moment of Opportunity

The environmental summits hosted by Brazil and Colombia could be pivotal in shaping the global response to the climate crisis. By aligning their visions, Petro and Lula have the potential to lead the world in a new era of environmental diplomacy, one that addresses the urgent needs of both the planet and its most vulnerable populations. The stakes are high, and the world will be watching as these two nations attempt to pull the Amazon back from the brink.

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