2025 registered a year of record lows in Canada. This called for chartering a path towards stability in 2026. It will depend on visa processing reform. Besides this, the shifting political discourse shared by experts entered the year with a cautious sense of hope.
Stakeholders believed that Canada’s policy environment in 2026 may need to be understood as one of prolonged managed constraints.
For this reason, 2025 became yet another year of targets falling short.
After two years of sustained caps & constraints, Canadian stakeholders have said that they are rather fatigued but still hopeful about the year ahead. Experts widely anticipate that inbound mobility will remain constrained in 2026 due to visa processing delays and record-low approval rates. They added that study permit issuance is unlikely to meet this year’s target of 408,000. This amount includes 155,000 new student arrivals.
A slight rebound can be anticipated. Overall intake will stay below previous highs as the government sustains a cautious approach. These views were shared by Chris Busch, University of Windsor Assistant Vice President of Enrollment Management.
After failing to meet the federal targets in 2024 and 2025 consecutively, Busch expressed doubt about achieving the target. However, he noted it seemed more realistic than previous years and welcomed the exemption of graduate students.
“While I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll improve on 2025 numbers, Busch was of the view that hitting the full target is likely to be a stretch.”
CBIR president Larissa Bezo shared that she was hopeful that increased applications, improved processing times, and approval rates would ideally result in meeting the 2026 target of 155,000 new student arrivals. However, she noted that this is a 50% reduction from the previous year.
Two years of restrictions continue to play out. It’s expected that many international students will be graduating from their programs of study. The result is likely to be a much smaller number of new incoming students to take their place, said Bezo. She predicted another likely challenging year for institutions.
Since January 2024, study permit numbers have fallen far short of government caps. Stakeholders were criticizing the government’s key miscalculation. It was assumed that allocated volumes would automatically translate into issued permits.
The result underestimates the cumulative effects of the past 2 years. It includes reputational damage, rapid policy churn, inconsistent messaging, and shifting eligibility criteria. These were sentiments expressed by Phillipp Reichert, UBC director of global engagement.
If there is a credible period of policy stability, along with faster processing times and more positive messaging, the realized permit volumes could likely recover closer to the stated targets, said Reichert.
Believing in the possibility of partial recovery, any such recovery is likely to be selective rather than system-wide, asserted Reichet. This is with the strongest gains across graduate, PhD, and research programs. Furthermore, fields are aligned with national workforce objectives.
After a sharp post-pandemic decline, Peralta said that the demand for English and French studies in Canada remained rather strong. Paralta opined that they expect continued growth from Latin America, Europe & Asia. Besides this, there is renewed interest in programs with clear academic or career pathways.
Meanwhile, stakeholders raised grave concerns about the persistent unpredictability in visa outcomes. In addition to this, the approval rates were at an all-time low. These were acting as a de facto policy lever preventing students from obtaining study visas.
Believing in the possibility of partial recovery, any such recovery is likely to be selective rather than system-wide, according to the view expressed by Reichert. Most gains were registered across graduate, PhD, and research programs. This was in addition to fields that align with national workforce objectives.
After a sharp decline following the pandemic, Peralta noted that the demand for English and French studies in Canada remained relatively strong. Growth expectations were sustained from Latin America, Europe, and Asia. In addition to this, there has been a renewed interest in programs that offer clear academic or career pathways.
Stakeholders raised grave concerns about persistent unpredictability in visa outcomes. Additionally, approval rates have reached an all-time low. Furthermore, it acts as a de facto policy lever, preventing students from obtaining study visas.
