Africa (Commonwealth Union) _ South Africa faces the potential of a coalition government after the new party founded by former president Jacob Zuma significantly disrupted the elections. The African National Congress (ANC) saw its vote share plummet well below half, with more than two-thirds of voting stations counted.
By Thursday afternoon, the ANC, which has ruled South Africa with a strong majority since Nelson Mandela’s rise to power in 1994, held only 41.8% of the vote. If the final results remain similar, this marks a decline of over 15 percentage points from the 2019 elections, reflecting voter frustration over chronic unemployment, rolling power cuts, and deteriorating infrastructure.
The Democratic Alliance (DA), known for its business-friendly policies, was at 22.6%, while Zuma’s newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, advocating for nationalizing banks and land expropriation without compensation, secured 12%.
In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Zuma’s base and South Africa’s second most populous province, the MK had 43.6% of the vote with 57% of stations counted, more than double any other party. This surge affected the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, which seemed set to underperform its 2019 vote share of 10.8%.
The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research projected earlier on Thursday that the ANC’s vote share would fall to 40.5%, with the DA at 21.7% and the MK at 14.6%.
This election poses a significant challenge to the ANC, which forced Zuma to resign in 2018 amid corruption allegations. Despite remaining the largest party, the ANC will likely need a coalition partner, facing a constitutional deadline to convene parliament and elect a new president within 14 days of the results.
“This puts the ANC in a really big bind, with its two factions,” said political analyst Marisa Lourenço. The more leftist faction, still sympathetic to Zuma, contrasts sharply with the pro-business, center-right faction led by current President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The pro-business faction might prefer a coalition with the DA, but such a move could face resistance from within the ANC. Analysts suggest the EFF could be a more compatible partner for the ANC’s left-wing faction, despite their radical policies on nationalization and land redistribution clashing with Ramaphosa’s vision and investor interests.
The ANC might consider a coalition with the DA but include another smaller Black-led party to balance perceptions, said Melanie Verwoerd, a former ANC MP and political analyst. The DA, perceived as a White-led party with market-oriented policies, isn’t popular with many South Africans.
The election results also put Ramaphosa’s leadership under scrutiny. Nomvula Mokonyane, a senior ANC official, dismissed any threats to his position, asserting, “Nobody is going to resign.”
John Steenhuisen, DA leader, indicated his party would first consult the Multi-Party Charter, a pre-election alliance with about 29% of the votes counted so far. He aims to prevent what he calls a “Doomsday coalition” involving the ANC, MK, and EFF.
Dudu Zuma-Sambudla, Zuma’s daughter, expressed satisfaction with the election results despite falling short of their goal for a two-thirds parliamentary majority to amend the constitution. She reaffirmed the MK’s opposition to collaborating with the ANC under Ramaphosa at the national level.
Jacob Zuma, barred from running due to a 2021 prison sentence for contempt of court, remains a controversial figure with enduring support, especially among those who view the scandals as politically motivated attacks.
As vote counting continues, coalition negotiations are already underway behind the scenes. “We have already begun the give and take and political bartering,” said Kealeboga Maphunye, a professor of African politics at the University of South Africa.Top of Form
