By Wasana Nadeeshani Sellahewa
Commonwealth _ The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), headquartered in Barbados, has issued a forecast anticipating a diminishing El Niño event in the Pacific and near-record warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures from March to May this year. This climate pattern shift is expected to usher in a much warmer than usual heat season, marked by recurrent heatwaves, prompting the region to prepare for potential challenges.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that manifests as an abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This occurrence is part of a larger and more complex climatic phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO encompasses both El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, each representing distinct phases in this natural climate cycle.
During El Niño, the “warm phase” of ENSO, the usual temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific are disrupted. Normally, trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm surface waters toward the western Pacific. However, during El Niño, these trade winds weaken, causing a slowdown in the westward movement of warm waters. Consequently, the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures extend eastward toward the central and eastern Pacific regions.
The impacts of El Niño are far-reaching and extend beyond the Pacific Ocean. This climatic phenomenon significantly influences global weather patterns, leading to a variety of environmental changes. Some of the notable consequences include altered precipitation patterns, increased drought conditions in certain regions, and a heightened risk of extreme weather events such as floods, storms, and heatwaves.
Transition to a Warmer Than Usual Heat Season
CariCOF’s latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication indicates that the Caribbean region is poised to transition into a period of heightened temperatures, with the possibility of recurring heatwaves starting as early as April. The forecast for March suggests high evaporation rates, an annual peak in the frequency of short dry spells, and potential exacerbation of ongoing drought conditions, along with an increased risk of wildfires in specific areas.
April to May Outlook
As the region progresses into April and May, CariCOF anticipates a significant rise in rainfall intensity and shower frequency. This shift is likely to result in a high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, and associated hazards in most places, excluding the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao). The forecast emphasizes the need for heightened preparedness and awareness during this period.
Drought Conditions
As of February 1, 2024, CariCOF reports the development of long-term drought conditions in various areas, including Antigua, Dominica, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, Suriname, northern Belize, Eastern Cuba, northern Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago, and the Windward Islands. Additionally, by the end of May 2024, long-term drought is expected to evolve in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inland portions of French Guiana, northeastern and inland portions of Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, northern Suriname, and possibly in other regions.
Impacts on the Region
The forecasted weather patterns pose several challenges for the Caribbean region, including increased risks of flooding, flash floods, and associated impacts. The potential for cascading hazards highlights the need for robust disaster preparedness and response measures. Additionally, the evolving drought conditions raise concerns about water scarcity and its impact on agriculture, ecosystems, and overall regional resilience.
As the Caribbean region anticipates a transition into a much warmer than usual heat season, the importance of proactive measures cannot be overstated. Governments, communities, and businesses should prioritize disaster preparedness, water conservation efforts, and climate-resilient infrastructure to mitigate the potential impacts of recurrent heatwaves, flooding, and drought. CariCOF’s insights serve as a valuable guide for the region to navigate and adapt to the evolving climatic conditions, fostering a more resilient and sustainable future.
