ByGeoffrey Van Orden
“The intrinsic strengths of individual and national freedom, of free market economies, and the rule of law will continue to give the democracies and their allies overwhelming advantage, provided they work together”
“America is back. Diplomacy is back at the center of our foreign policy . ,” announced President Biden as he set out his foreign policy priorities at the State Department on 4 February.
His promise to reform “the habits of cooperation and rebuild the muscle of democratic alliances that have atrophied”, must be reassuring to America’s allies, bruised by the last 5 years. But they will remember the previous Obama/Biden approach in 2009, outlining determination to “reset” America’s relations with a number of hostile or difficult countries. The consequences of this approach were at best, disappointing. A power vacuum was created which was rapidly filled by adversaries who were less accommodating.
A dangerous world for the democracies
New challenges now exist to add to the threats identified in 2009, most of which persist in a worsened state. Iran’s nuclear weapons programme may have been delayed but it remains in being and can be upgraded. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya are unstable and significantly controlled by forces not aligned with the democracies. Myanmar has abandoned its democratic path and reverted to military dictatorship.
In spite of major defeats for ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the threat of international terrorism, in all its forms, remains. There are too many ungoverned spaces and lawless border regions across the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, as well as in parts of Asia, in which terrorists can establish themselves and blight the lives of local people.
Russia has a declining economy and population but has invested disproportionately in upgrading her military capabilities and does not shrink from using them. She is extending her reach with bases not just in Syria but also in Sudan. In both Eastern Ukraine and in Libya she has used proxy forces to pursue a policy of destabilisation and disruption. She maintains an intense cyber assault on other countries’ economic, security and political institutions and actively sows disinformation among their citizens through social media.
China has extended her reach and relative power massively over the past ten years. Ironically, as the source of the Covid-19 pandemic, China almost alone has experienced continued GDP growth while western economies have taken a massive hit. China’s defence spending has almost doubled in a decade. It now has a blue water naval capability with a Chinese military base in Djibouti in addition to port facilities in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. Aggressive probes have continued against India in the Himalayas and against Taiwan, while Pakistan has continued to be drawn closer into China’s economic and strategic orbit.
China is now challenging the established international system, calling into question the Law of the Sea and establishing new financial and economic institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). She has become a massive, often primary, trading partner and investment creditor in much of Asia, Africa and Latin America. These developments create real dilemmas for the democracies and their friends and allies, who may understand the dangers but cannot resist a desire for involvement – a classic poisoned apple.
It is not just authoritarian states that will present difficulties for the new American administration but troublesome allies as well, bruised over trade and tariff issues and with their public opinion no longer well-disposed towards America. Confidence even in NATO was shaken by doubts raised by President Trump over the automaticity of Article 5 – the vital underpinning of deterrence – and the continued commitment of the US to the defence of Europe. This was in spite of subsequent assurances from President Trump, an enhanced forward presence of US forces and increased investment in the European Deterrence Initiative.
The foreign policy complex in many of our countries has long cherished a romanticised view of the European Union based on its founding motives. The welcome enlargement to eastern Europe following the fall of communism also fits the dream of a “Europe whole and free”. But the motives of the past are no longer relevant to the world today. The EU has changed. That’s why Britain left. It is a self-interested organisation which has revealed vindictive and protectionist features through its handling of Brexit and the Covid vaccination issue.
President Biden will have to shake off the habit of equating “Europe” with the EU – great European nations such as Britain, Norway, Switzerland and for that matter Turkey, are not EU members and Poland is treated by the EU as a pariah because its government does not wholly toe the EU line on ‘ever closer union’. He should remember Madeleine Albright’s insistence that EU defence ambitions must avoid de-linking from NATO; avoid duplicatingexisting efforts; and avoid discriminating against non-EU members, as 20 years later this is exactly where it is heading.
For a long time Britain was a restraining hand on French ambitions to absorb continental European countries into an integrated, protectionist ,“strategically autonomous” state. Britain’s departure from the EU has enabled these ambitions to be fuelled.
In the Far East, the Trump overtures to Kim Jong Un had little impact on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programme but unnerved regional allies. This at least had the effect of encouraging stronger defence commitment by those allies and a readiness for more effective alliances in the Indo-Pacific region but it sowed mistrust.
The most negative overall consequence of American foreign policy during the previous Obama/Biden years was the erosion of American leadership.
What is to be done?
President Biden will have to reassure key allies such as Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, and continue to broker reconciliation between them. He should acknowledge the advances made by the previous presidency in advancing Israel’s security and regional cooperation. His moves to reassure the Palestinians must be conditional on their cooperation in ending and suppressing terrorism and on return to the conference table in a positive spirit. There is then great scope then for initiatives such as a ‘Middle East NATO’ and regional “Marshall plan” to include Lebanon and the Palestine Authority areas, to which Arab countries and others would also contribute.
In the Indo-Pacific region there are already moves to expand the G7 forum, which already includes the USA, UK, and Japan, to a D-10 to include India, Australia and the Republic of Korea. Regional alliances such as the Quad should be given more substance. Britain, with regional bases, a newly deployable carrier group and long-standing connections in the region can be a key ally in this. She can also make a vital contribution to enhancing the relationship with the emerging superpower that is India. For reliable friends, India should not have to turn to the support of the Kremlin.
The authoritarian generals in Myanmar must be given the incentive to step aside and give Aung San Suu Kyi the powers to lead her people in response to the democratic mandate she won.
Russia’s strategic aim of separating Europe from America has not changed but it is not in our interests to stoke more hostility. Any efforts at an accommodation with Russia will have to be carried out from a position of strength and Western unity and Russia will have to change her behaviour.
Unlike the old Soviet Union, China is becoming an economic as well as a military power. Its huge, increasingly prosperous and aspiring, population represents the world’s largest potential market. Regrettably, it is also the world’s largest single contributor to carbon emissions. These three facts mean that policy towards China should be marked by realistic engagement from a position of strength, rather than hostility or indeed, neediness.
It is in the interests of the democracies to support the security and development of the major African and other less developed countries, helping them avoid the snares of debt entrapment with China, and to assist them in overcoming the many obstacles on their path to economic prosperity and stability.
Biden’s response to the challenges
President Biden looks out of the windows of the Oval Office facing enormous challenges, beginning with the pandemic and the need for rapid economic recovery. He knows that the intrinsic strengths of individual and national freedom, of free market economies, and the rule of law will continue to give the democracies and their allies overwhelming advantage, provided they work together. Previous remedies haven’t worked particularly well and there is some urgent repair work to be done.
While a “Democracy Summit” may seem a marvellous idea, taking the moral high ground, care needs to be taken. There will be an immediate problem in deciding who among America’s friends and allies qualify for attendance and how to avoid undue influence of NGOs with their own political agendas.
The Biden administration should inject fresh pragmatism into its international relations. In mending fences with the EU it should continue to insist on NATO’s role as the primary Western defence alliance and forum of crisis management. It should discourage EU initiatives which distract from this core commitment. It should actively develop a global network of other regional alliances and encourage, support and listen to its reliable allies, and first amongst these is the United Kingdom. Significantly, this year the UK will chair both the G7+ and the UN climate change conferences.
The UK is not only one of the five Permanent Member of the UN Security Council, it is the preeminent military power in Europe and retains global reach that includes Commonwealth leadership. Indeed, the Commonwealth needs to become a more cohesive and instrumental force, exercising real global weight but it faces great challenges to achieve this.
The new US administration faces great challenges but enormous opportunity as the world seeks recovery from the disruption of the pandemic. The democracies and their allies are fundamentally strong. They have helped lift millions across the globe out of poverty and extend real freedom to so many. Our expectation is that the US will not just re-engage, but once again lead.
