Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 U. S. Election marks a historic moment for Republicans, as a GOP winning both the popular vote as well as the Electoral College for the first time in nearly two decades. In 2004, George W. Bush secured re-election against Democrat John Kerry, marking the last instance of a Republican achieving this dual victory. Before that, Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush, won both the popular vote and the Electoral College in the 1988 election, defeating Michael Dukakis.
Since the turn of the century, winning the popular vote has been especially challenging for Republican candidates, primarily due to the growing influence of heavily Democratic states like California, New York, and Illinois, with Trump himself acknowledging this challenge and noting that the solidly blue votes from these three states make it an “extremely difficult” feat for Republicans to secure a popular vote win.
Modern elections, notably beginning in 2000, have seen a trend of split results, where the electoral victor loses the popular vote. In that race, George W. Bush won the Electoral College and ultimately the presidency over Al Gore, despite Gore winning the popular vote. This outcome was the first of its kind in over a century, with the last instance dating back to 1888, when Benjamin Harrison won the presidency despite losing the popular vote to Grover Cleveland.
For Republicans, Trump’s popular vote victory signals a potential realignment in American politics and voter demographics. With Trump’s focus on economic concerns, national security, and an “America-first” agenda, the GOP’s expanded reach in 2024 could set the stage for future Republican campaigns to target new coalitions and build on this unprecedented support base. This election may very well be a pivotal moment, redefining how Republicans strategize for national elections and connect with a broader spectrum of voters.
