(Commonwealth_India) India’s oil demand is projected to grow significantly faster than that of China in 2025. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts a 3.4 percent increase in Indian oil consumption, more than double China’s projected growth rate of 1.5 percent for the same year. This sharp contrast highlights the divergent trajectories of the two largest emerging economies, with India demonstrating more robust momentum in energy demand, underpinned by its accelerating economic development, infrastructure expansion, and industrial growth.
According to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, India’s daily oil consumption is expected to rise from 5.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 5.74 million bpd in 2025—this increase of approximately 188,000 bpd year-on-year marks one of the most substantial upticks among major oil-consuming nations. The trend reflects India’s continued emergence as a key player in the global energy landscape, driven by its fast-growing population, rapid urbanization, and expanding middle class. With these structural economic and demographic factors in play, India is expected to remain a major contributor to global oil demand growth for the foreseeable future.
In comparison, China’s oil demand growth is expected to moderate further, rising by only 1.5 percent in 2025, after years of being the primary engine of global oil consumption. This deceleration in Chinese demand comes amid its transition toward a more consumption-led economy, ongoing shifts toward renewable energy, and the effects of slower industrial activity. India, by contrast, remains in a phase of rapid expansion, with rising demand in key sectors such as transportation, manufacturing, and petrochemicals continuing to support its increasing oil consumption.
India’s growing energy needs are being driven in large part by infrastructure development. The government has committed substantial investment toward roads, highways, railways, and logistics networks, all of which are heavily reliant on petroleum products like diesel and bitumen. This push for connectivity is expected to continue boosting oil demand across the construction and transport sectors. Moreover, the expansion of industrial output and the development of the petrochemical sector are creating additional demand for feedstocks derived from crude oil.
OPEC notes that consumer spending in India remains strong, supported by favorable monetary conditions, moderate inflation, and proactive government policies. These factors are contributing to sustained domestic demand and further reinforcing the country’s economic momentum. While trade-related headwinds such as U.S. tariffs have raised some concerns, the broader economic outlook for India remains resilient. The government is expected to respond with supportive fiscal and monetary measures to cushion any potential negative impact on growth.
The 3.4 percent increase in oil demand forecast for India in 2025 not only positions the country as the fastest-growing oil consumer among major economies but also signals a broader shift in global energy dynamics. As China’s energy demand growth levels off and advanced economies like the United States show limited year-on-year increases, much of the incremental global oil demand will increasingly come from developing nations like India.
India currently imports more than 85 percent of the crude oil it consumes, and the rising demand is placing even greater strategic emphasis on energy security, diversification of supply sources, and expansion of domestic refining capacity. Recently, India’s crude oil imports have reached record levels, underscoring the country’s growing reliance on international energy markets. Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia remain key suppliers, with Russia’s share of India’s crude imports rising notably in early 2025.
OPEC’s projection reflects confidence in India’s continued economic expansion and its growing importance in shaping global energy consumption trends. As the country scales up infrastructure, strengthens its industrial base, and supports rising living standards for its population, its oil consumption is expected to remain on a firm upward trajectory. This development presents opportunities and challenges, including the need for sustainable energy strategies, efficient logistics networks, and increased investment in refining and storage infrastructure. India’s rise as a leading force in global oil demand is no longer a future scenario but a present-day reality that is already reshaping international energy dynamics.
