Environmental (Commonwealth Union)_ India is set to experience above-average temperatures in February, following an unusually warm January, raising concerns over the country’s winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that rising temperatures, coupled with below-average rainfall, could significantly impact yields, particularly in key agricultural states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.
According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of the IMD, maximum and minimum temperatures will remain higher than normal throughout most regions, with fewer cold days than expected. This shift in climate conditions poses a serious threat to crops at crucial flowering and grain-filling stages. “Below-normal rainfall, along with higher temperatures over the plains of northwest India, would have a significant adverse impact on standing crops like wheat, mustard, and chickpeas, potentially leading to early maturity and reduced yields,” he stated.
The effects of unseasonal warmth were already evident in January when both minimum and maximum temperatures exceeded averages due to insufficient rainfall. With a second consecutive month of unusual weather ahead, the agricultural sector faces heightened risks. Reduced wheat output, for instance, could strain state reserves, potentially driving prices even higher. Already, wheat prices soared to a record 33,250 rupees ($384.05) per metric ton earlier this month, signalling market concerns over supply shortages.
Similarly, a decline in rapeseed production may push India, the world’s largest vegetable oil importer, to increase its reliance on overseas suppliers. India primarily sources palm oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while its imports of soybean oil and sunflower oil come from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. A shortfall in domestic oilseed production could further inflate import costs, affecting both consumers and industry stakeholders.
As climate unpredictability intensifies, Indian farmers and policymakers must navigate the mounting challenges of erratic weather patterns. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the extent of agricultural losses and their broader economic repercussions.
