Nvidia smashed Q4 estimates with USD 68.1 billion in revenue. This was followed by a USD 78 billion Q1 revenue guide that effectively silenced AI bubble fears. Eurozone CPI was confirmed at 1.7%, falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in over a year. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories surged by 16 million barrels, marking the largest weekly build of 2026.
The Big 3
- Nvidia earnings blowout
Nvidia delivered a Q4 blowout after the bell, reporting revenue of USD 68.1 billion (+73% YoY), beating estimates of USD 66.2 billion by nearly USD 2 billion. EPS came in at USD 1.62, topping the USD 1.53 consensus. Data centre revenue reached USD 62.3 billion. The Q1 revenue guide of USD 78 billion crushed expectations and helped silence AI bubble concerns. CEO Jensen Huang asserted that the “agentic AI inflection point has arrived.” - Eurozone inflation cools below target
Eurozone CPI was confirmed at 1.7% YoY in January, down from 2.0% in December and below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since September 2024. Core CPI eased to 2.2% from 2.3%, while energy prices plunged 4.1% YoY. The data cements the disinflation narrative. Markets now see only a 20% chance of an ECB rate cut by year-end, largely due to the strength of the euro. - U.S. crude inventories surge
U.S. crude oil inventories jumped by 16.0 million barrels, the largest weekly build of 2026, versus expectations of a 1.8 million barrel increase. Refinery utilization dropped by 2.4 percentage points as capacity came offline. The build reversed last week’s 9.0 million barrel draw and pressured WTI prices, even as Iran–U.S. tensions kept a floor under the market.
Europe
Eurozone CPI was confirmed at 1.7% YoY in January, below the ECB’s 2% target and the lowest reading since September 2024. Core inflation eased to 2.2%, while energy prices fell 4.1% YoY. Services inflation moderated to 3.2% from 3.4%. The data aligned with the flash estimate, reinforcing the disinflation narrative. The ECB is expected to remain on hold, with markets pricing only a 20% chance of a rate cut by year-end.
German GDP was confirmed at 0.3% QoQ in Q4, ending the flat growth seen in Q3. However, the GfK consumer climate index for March deteriorated to -24.7 from -24.2, missing the -23.0 estimate. German consumers remain deeply pessimistic despite signs of business recovery, highlighting a disconnect between corporate performance and household sentiment.
French consumer confidence edged up to 91 in February from 90, marginally beating expectations. This provided a rare bright spot following Tuesday’s grim INSEE business survey. Spanish PPI improved slightly to -2.9% YoY from -3.0%, though it remains deeply deflationary. European equities were steady, with the Stoxx 600 modestly higher as the tariff “TACO” trade continued to play out.
Verdict
Inflation is no longer the central concern, having moved below target. The key question is whether the ECB pivots toward supporting growth. German GDP confirms a modest recovery, but the GfK data suggest consumers have yet to feel it. The uptick in French confidence is encouraging, though still fragile.
United States
Nvidia reported after the bell and demolished expectations. Q4 revenue reached USD 68.1 billion, up 73% YoY and USD 2 billion above consensus. Data centre sales of USD 62.3 billion drove the beat. Adjusted EPS of USD 1.62 exceeded the USD 1.53 estimate, while net income nearly doubled to USD 43 billion. The Q1 revenue guide of USD 78 billion (+/-2%) was the headline, alongside supply commitments that almost doubled quarter-over-quarter from USD 50.3 billion to USD 95.2 billion.
During the regular session, equities extended their rally for a second straight day. The S&P 500 gained 0.81% to 6,946, the Nasdaq surged 1.26% to 23,152, and the Dow added 308 points to close at 49,482. Software stocks continued their recovery from Monday’s AI-driven selloff, with Microsoft up 3%, Palantir gaining 4.2%, and Oracle rising on a bullish upgrade. President Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night focused on domestic policy, including retirement, housing, and the upcoming 250th anniversary celebrations, offering no new tariff escalation.
