The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has given one of their strongest warnings yet to Iran regarding any attempts from Iran to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.  Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), characterized any such disruption as “economic terrorism” and indicated his concerns were indicative of increased concerns throughout world energy markets regarding heightened geopolitical tensions in the broader region. Al Jaber, speaking from Washington, D.C., opined that the worldwide costs incurred from any instability in the Strait of Hormuz would not be limited to the Middle East and result in consumers all over the world paying higher fuel prices and experiencing increased inflation.
The UAE’s warning regarding the stability of the Strait of Hormuz is especially grave because the Strait of Hormuz has been recognized as one of the world’s most important energy supply path chokepoints. According to a 2025 International Energy Agency report, over an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil and oil products were transported per day through the Strait of Hormuz and accounted for approximately 25% of the world’s maritime oil trade. Additionally, the IEA indicates that approximately 93% of Qatar’s LNG and 96% of the UAE’s LNG are exported through the Strait of Hormuz, thus underscoring the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to both oil and global natural gas markets.
This denotes that just the mere threat of a disruption to energy flows can send shockwaves throughout all global markets—not just those based in the Gulf region—because of this interdependence. Per the IEA, although an estimated 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day of pipeline capacity exists to reroute from outside the Strait of Hormuz, the ability to absorb prolonged dislocation will be difficult; thus, any impacts could take longer than expected to recover from.
In this context, Al Jaber’s comments were not just limited to the threat of the closing shipping lanes but also reminded us that regional security, energy prices, and the costs of consumer goods are all intertwined. More broadly, whenever trade routes become threatened, there are cascading effects from tankers and terminal facilities to factory facilities and stores to ultimately consumers around the world.
While the escalation of tensions in this region will require numerous actions to reduce those tensions, the most urgent means of acting is through diplomacy, which is also likely to have the lowest visibility. Protecting the Strait of Hormuz from blockades is critical, as they will result not only in the delay of oil and gas flowing through this area; therefore, there is a significant chance of a regional conflict growing into a larger international economic crisis.
The need for peace in this situation should be understood as a means of facilitating market transactions.
