Global crude oil prices tumbled, but stock markets rallied amid fresh hopes that a U.S.-Iran peace deal may end the greatest energy supply crisis in history.
The price of Brent crude dropped 4% to below USD 84 (£62) a barrel as the new trading week began in financial centres across the Asia-Pacific. The drop is amidst optimism that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen shortly and bring a return of Gulf oil exports to the market.
Trump said on Sunday, June 14th, ’26, that a deal was nearly complete. The progress is despite the recent Israeli airstrikes on Beirut that had threatened to undermine the sensitive discussions.
The U.S. president wrote on social media that he had fully authorised the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, he authorised the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Trump added that ships of the world may restart their engines to facilitate the oil movements.
An hour later, Trump clarified that the strait may open after the peace deal is signed on Friday, 19 June ’26, for the purpose of mine removal. Oil may flow again at both ends of the region, in addition to benefiting the world.
Many of the details of the agreement are yet unclear. The uncertainty revolves notably around the exact timing of the reopening of the maritime trade route. Additionally, who will be responsible for overseeing safe passage, and what conditions may be applied? Iranian authorities have asserted that there may be a 60-day negotiation period for a final deal. This may tackle wider issues, such as Tehran’s nuclear program, besides providing relief from sanctions.
The benchmark international crude oil price extended the falls recorded on Friday, 12 June ’26, to just over USD 83 a barrel. That’s the lowest since the early days of the war on Tuesday, 10 March ’26. Brent crude oil was just below USD 73 at the outbreak of the war in late February ’26.
The crude oil price began tumbling late last week from USD 93 a barrel on Thursday, 11 June, to close at USD 87.50 on Friday, 12 June. The drop was after Trump said that he was close to reaching a peace deal with Tehran that may end the regime’s effective chokehold on the oil trade route.
Global stock markets rallied on Monday, 15 June. In Europe, the UK’s FTSE 100 rose by 0.8%, while the French CAC 40 and the German DAX were both up 1.8%. Shares in oil companies, including BP, besides Shell, declined in early trading.
In Asia, a region heavily dependent on crude oil imports, Japan’s Nikkei index, besides South Korea’s KOSPI, jumped by 5%. Meanwhile, China’s CSI300 index rose by 1.9%.
The U.S. president also claimed that the U.S. military had been secretly aiding in moving millions of barrels of crude oil through the strait recently in a bid to help ease the pressure in the global market.
Crude oil prices have remained lower than expected throughout the Iran war. This brought Gulf’s crude oil exports through the strait to a halt in early March ’26. The halt in Gulf crude oil exports effectively erased 20 million barrels of crude oil each day from the market, which amounts to 1/5 (20%) of the market’s supplies.
Gulf producers have managed to reroute about 5m barrels of crude oil a day to the market, opting for pipelines to alternative regional export hubs. In recent weeks, an additional 2m barrels a day may have reached the market. That was with the help of the U.S. military through ‘dark tankers’ that shuttle cargoes undetected to vessels awaiting them in the Gulf of Oman before returning to reload.
However, there are still several vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. The Japanese Shipowners’ Association said on Monday, 15 June, that there were still 38 Japanese-linked vessels stranded in the channel.
