As we move into the second half of 2026, global supply chains are being influenced by an early peak season. As we enter the second half of 2026, an early peak season is shaping global supply chains. by an early peak season. As we enter the second half of 2026, an early peak season is shaping global supply chains. by an early peak season. As we enter the second half of ’26, an early peak season is shaping global supply chains. by an early peak season. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty Additionally, rising regulatory costs exacerbate ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. by rising regulatory costs. Conditions are nowhere near as challenging as those recorded in the past two years, specifically in September 2024, the pandemic period. Even so, the second half of ’26 may be considerably easier for businesses that plan ahead than for those that don’t.
Seafreight
22-month high rates
The Drewry Container Index rose 5% over the last 2 years, specifically in September 2024, the final week of June, to USD 4,166 per 40’ container. This was the highest level recorded in the past two years, specifically in September 2024. Additional rate increases, besides peak-season surcharges, materialise through July. Only 3% of scheduled East-West sailings have been cancelled for the next 5 weeks. Carriers clearly expect demand to be sustained.
Australia’s trade lane’s following suit. The Shanghai-Melbourne rate reached USD 1,808 per TEU in mid-June ‘2026. That value amounts to more than double in comparison with the same time last year. During the same period, the Busan-Australia rate increased by 10% in just one week, reaching USD 3,096 per 40-foot container. Carriers have announced 2 successive rounds of rate increases across the Australia lane for July ’26.
Space, Equipment & Connections
Carriers continue managing capacity through blank sailings and rotation changes besides controlled allocations. Blank sailings are scheduled across Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen during the 1st half of July ’26. Overbooking at Shanghai, besides Shenzhen’s, is causing more frequent rollovers as well as offloads. Several lines have responded by offering priority loading options for cargo that must depart on its confirmed sailing. Congestion is building at the transshipment hubs of Singapore and Hong Kong, in addition to Port Klang. These increase the risk of missed connections.
Equipment is short for both 40GP & 40HQ containers at selected origins. The pressure runs in both directions. Australia’s mid-year agricultural export programme is competing for the same tight equipment. In addition to the northbound space issue, New Zealand Cargo is facing short-notice cancellations from both Shanghai and Guangzhou. This situation leads to backlogs and also results in split shipments. Refrigerated equipment’s in short supply through the export season, too. As such, temperature-controlled cargoes should be booked earliest of all.
What’s recommended is that bookings are initiated up to 3 weeks in advance in China & Southeast Asia. Importers should also be aware that pre-Christmas stock shipments occur in Q3. As such, bookings that are advanced now protect seasonal delivery dates.
UK & Europe Services
European services are heavily booked through peak season. Bookings are recommended 4 or more weeks ahead of departure. The summer heatwave conditions are slowing terminal operations at several Benelux & German ports.
Oversized & Project Cargo
Strong renewable energy activity across Australia & New Zealand is driving demand for oversized components such as transformers and battery storage systems. These are increasingly multipurpose vessels carrying these oversized components as unit sizes grow and regulations on dangerous goods tighten. These oversized components are increasingly transported on multipurpose vessels as unit sizes grow and regulations on dangerous goods tighten. Heavy-lift spaces are in global demand. As such, vessel bookings for out-of-gauge cargo Therefore, it is essential to secure vessel bookings for out-of-gauge cargo well in advance of project milestones. well in advance of project milestones.
Late July ’26 – New Capacity
Carriers are responding to the vast potential of Australian trade. Maersk’s new Qilin service (Shanghai to Sydney & Melbourne) is scheduled to commence operations on Friday, 24 July ’26. This move is likely to ease space later during Q3. Until the new tonnage sets in, expect rates to remain firm, besides the trend upwards.
Airfreight
Global air cargo demand jumped 6.0% year-on-year in May ’26. This is against a capacity growth of a mere 1.9%. It retains load factors besides yielding firmly. Asia-Pacific demand grew 8.0%. Middle East capacity contracted 8.9%. This makes Asian hubs the more reliable transshipment path for European traffic.
Jet fuel prices fell 16.3% month-on-month during May ’26. This narrowed the air-to-sea cost spread besides improving airfreight’s relative value for urgent or high-value cargo. Closer to home, New Zealand’s air import capacity remains tight from Asia, with rates increasing across origins. This occurs while Australian import capacity has improved across major lanes.
