A new study has revealed a surprising climate danger zone in the Amazon. It is the central-north Amazon. This area has thick forest, open natural grasslands, and large indigenous territories. Scientists once thought it was safe from the worst effects of climate change. New research shows this belief was wrong.
The study was published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. It was led by Lancaster University, working with WWF UK and more than 50 other scientists. They looked at climate data across the whole Amazon basin. Their work covers 43 years, from 1981 to 2023.
The results are alarming. About 10% of the Amazon basin is heating up fast during the dry season. That area is bigger than Afghanistan. It covers more than 700,000 square kilometres. In this zone, extreme temperatures are rising by at least 0.75°C every ten years. Temperatures there have increased by over 3.22°C since 1981.
This is much faster than the average warming trend. Average temperatures across the Amazon are rising by about 0.21°C per decade. That matches the global average. But average numbers hide the real danger. Extreme heat and drought are increasing much faster than everyday averages suggest.
To find this out, researchers split the Amazon into small grid squares, each about 11 kilometres wide. They used satellite data and weather station records. This let them study each area’s dry season closely. They also created a new way to measure water stress. It accounts for how heat makes water loss worse.
The team studied change in two ways. First, they looked at average trends over time. Second, they looked at the most extreme years. This second method showed the real story. It captured how severe the worst droughts and heatwaves have become.
The southern Amazon is still the fastest-warming region overall. That area has suffered heavy deforestation. But the central-north Amazon is now seeing the fastest rise in extreme events. This region has not been heavily cleared or logged. So local land changes cannot explain it. Researchers say this points to a bigger cause: global climate change driven by worldwide emissions.
This phenomenon matters because 2026 is expected to bring a powerful El Niño, possibly the strongest ever recorded. The phenomenon could bring severe heat and drought to the Amazon again. It would come just two years after the major drought of 2024. Scientists worry that if extreme events continue to rise at such a rapid pace, the Amazon could be pushed past a tipping point.
The effects are already visible. Sloths and other mammals have been found dead in the forest, the first mass animal deaths recorded there. Bird populations have shrunk. Birds are changing in size, appearance, and behaviour. Wildfires have grown worse, causing air pollution in cities like Manaus. Rivers have dried up, harming people who depend on them for travel and daily life.
Communities are also suffering economically. Dr Joice Ferreira from Embrapa said extreme weather is hurting important local products, like açaí. She said the situation weakens food security and threatens local economies built around the forest. She warned it could disrupt government efforts to restore forests and support communities.
Professor Barlow, one of the study’s authors, called for urgent action. He said the world must reduce deforestation, since it makes climate risks worse. He also said local people need better support, including help fighting fires and dealing with dried-up rivers, especially with El Niño approaching in 2026.
Mike Barrett of WWF-UK agreed. He said the findings show climate change is not just a future threat. It is happening now, even in remote and largely untouched parts of the Amazon. He called for global climate action, an end to deforestation, and support for conservation efforts like the Tropical Forest Forever Facility.
The researchers hope their findings will guide better protection strategies. They have also created an interactive online map. It shows detailed changes in temperature, rainfall, and water stress across the entire Amazon basin.
