(Commonwealth_ Cyprus) As the conflict between Israel and Lebanon intensifies, concerns are mounting regarding the stability of the Middle East, with potential ramifications for neighboring countries, particularly Cyprus. A year into the hostilities, Apostolos Tomaras, in his article for Kathimerini Cyprus, highlights the dire humanitarian and political implications for Lebanon amidst intensified Israeli airstrikes.
The ongoing military actions are raising alarms about the possible collapse of Lebanon’s political framework, prompting widespread humanitarian concerns. Thousands of Lebanese civilians are fleeing Beirut, reversing years of social and economic progress and pushing the country toward further political chaos. This situation is causing increasing anxiety not only within the region but also among European Union (EU) officials, who had previously provided political and financial support to Lebanon to stabilize the nation.
Cyprus, due to its geographical proximity to the conflict zone, is particularly vigilant. Authorities in Nicosia are closely monitoring developments, fearing a significant surge in migrant flows from Lebanon—an issue the island has struggled to manage even in more stable times. While evacuations of third-country nationals from Lebanon are currently under control, Cyprus is bracing for potential escalation.
Since the onset of hostilities, Cyprus has aligned its policies with those of the EU in providing support to Lebanon. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has made two visits to Lebanon, including a joint visit with the President of the European Commission, aimed at reinforcing the Lebanese government’s stability and mitigating the risk of a larger humanitarian disaster. Collaboration between Cyprus and Lebanon, particularly in managing migration, has thus far been effective, with Lebanon successfully curbing the number of migrants attempting to reach Europe via the sea, thereby alleviating pressure on both Cyprus and Brussels.
However, the recent escalation of hostilities poses a threat to these efforts. The foremost concern for Nicosia is the potential collapse of Lebanon’s political system, which could lead to a new wave of refugees. Currently, around two million illegal migrants are reported to be residing along Lebanon’s coast, waiting for opportunities to escape to Europe, often through Cyprus.
On the humanitarian front, Cyprus remains cautiously optimistic, drawing on its experiences from previous crises in Lebanon in 2006 and 2022. The Estia project, designed to facilitate the evacuation of foreign nationals, is currently inactive, as no requests for assistance have been received. Diplomatic sources indicate that a comprehensive evacuation is unlikely; however, should the need arise, up to 26,000 individuals could be relocated, significantly fewer than the 60,000 evacuated during the 2006 conflict.
Countries such as Portugal, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany have already coordinated the evacuation of their citizens, primarily through commercial flights. Although some airlines, including Cyprus Airways, have suspended flights to Beirut, the airport remains operational, a stark contrast to the situation in 2006 when it was bombed and closed, trapping many individuals.
While European nationals can be evacuated relatively easily, third-country nationals present a more complex challenge. These individuals would need to be registered upon arrival in Cyprus and would typically remain on the island for no more than a week, pending onward travel arrangements. Strict security measures are in place to ensure that they cannot move freely during this period.
Amid escalating fears of a prolonged conflict, Cyprus is also enhancing its military cooperation with international partners. The United States has recently increased its military presence on the island to assist with potential evacuations if the situation deteriorates further. Meanwhile, the UK has clarified that it will not use its bases in Cyprus for humanitarian operations. However, other nations, including Germany and the Netherlands, have already deployed troops to assist.
As the situation in Lebanon remains fluid, Cyprus continues to navigate its role as a critical player in managing the humanitarian and geopolitical implications of the conflict, striving to maintain domestic and regional stability.
