Health UK (Commonwealth Union) – A new study led by the University college London (UCL) suggests that the number of people living with dementia in England and Wales by 2040 could be significantly higher than previously forecast, with up to 1.7 million individuals affected, a rise of over 40% compared to earlier estimates.
In the past, research up to 2010 indicated a decline in dementia incidence in high-income countries. However, this recent research, published in The Lancet Public Health, reveals that dementia incidence in England and Wales started increasing after 2008. This upward trend in incidence prompted researchers to project a higher number of dementia cases in the future.
Prior research in England and Wales had projected a 57% increase in the number of people living with dementia from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040. The new study, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, suggests that the actual figure could be as high as 1.7 million.
The study analyzed data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) spanning from 2002 to 2019, focusing on individuals aged 50 and above living in private households in England. The findings showed a 28.8% decrease in the dementia incidence rate from 2002 to 2008, followed by a 25.2% increase from 2008 to 2016. This non-linear pattern was consistent across age, gender, and educational attainment subgroups.
Notably, the research highlighted increasing unevenness in dementia incidence rates between different educational groups, with a slower decline in the 2002-2008 period and a faster increase after 2008 in individuals with lower educational attainment.
If the observed incidence rate sees an increase of 2.8% per year from 2008 to 2016 continues, the study predicts that the number of people with dementia in England and Wales could reach 1.7 million by 2040, approximately twice the number in 2023. This is in comparison to the earlier estimate of one million people if dementia rates had continued to decline, as previously reported.
Lead author Dr. Yuntao Chen from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care expressed concern about this projection, highlighting that the number of people living with dementia by 2040 might be up to 70% higher than if dementia incidence had continued to decrease as previously expected.
“Not only will this have a devastating effect on the lives of those involved but it will also put a considerably larger burden on health and social care than current forecasts predict.
“Continued monitoring of the incidence trend will be crucial in shaping social care policy.”
While the rise in dementia cases is frequently linked to an aging population, the study also reveals that the incidence of dementia within older age demographics is on the upswing.
Professor Eric Brunner, the lead researcher from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, indicated that their study has uncovered that dementia may present a more pressing policy challenge than previously acknowledged, even if the current trajectory persists for just a few more years. They have identified that the aging population is a significant factor in this trend in England and Wales, but what’s also concerning is the growing number of individuals developing dementia within older age brackets.
“We don’t know how long this pattern will continue but the UK needs to be prepared so we can ensure that everyone affected, whatever their financial circumstances, is able to access the help and support that they need.”
James White, Head of National Influencing at Alzheimer’s Society, remarked that dementia represents the most significant challenge in the realm of health and social care today. The statistics from this study published in The Lancet Public Health serve as a sobering reminder that, in the absence of proactive measures, the personal and economic toll inflicted by dementia continues to escalate without respite.
