Environmental (Commonwealth Union)_ The Four Seasons Hotel in Sharm el-Sheikh, with its manicured gardens and mist-cooled courtyards, offers a breathtaking view of the desolate Egyptian desert beyond. During the COP27 climate summit in 2022, global leaders, including Tony Blair, who was once the UK’s climate vanguard and is now an enigmatic figure stirring debate behind closed doors, gathered at this luxury oasis.
Blair’s low-key presence at the summit was significant. Behind the scenes, he held high-level discussions, not as an elected leader, but as the head of his powerful think tank, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI). But concerns have mounted among climate experts and policymakers who once viewed him as a champion of the cause. Their worry? Blair may be drifting into alignment with fossil fuel powers and unintentionally undermining urgent climate action.
In a provocative report recently released by TBI, Blair called for a global “reset” in climate strategy. He argued that current policies demanding lifestyle sacrifices from voters in wealthy nations are “irrational” and politically unsustainable. Leaders, he claimed, know the truth but fear voicing it lest they be branded climate deniers.
The backlash was swift and severe. Blair’s premiership commissioned Nicholas Stern’s groundbreaking 2006 climate economics review, which he branded as “misleading.” He emphasized the global progress toward decarbonization the paper seemed to ignore. Others, like Bob Ward of the Grantham Institute, slammed the report for downplaying the urgency of net-zero goals. Green Alliance’s Shaun Spiers accused Blair of sidelining ordinary citizens by implying climate action is the domain of elites, a narrative tailor-made for populist exploitation.
Though TBI later clarified that Blair and the report support net-zero targets, the damage was done. The optics alone—a former prime minister considered soft-pedaling fossil fuel phase-outs while advising petrostates—fed suspicion and political opportunism.
Blair’s international relationships, particularly with fossil-fuel-rich nations in the Gulf, further complicate matters. His advisory roles for the UAE and Saudi Arabia, long-standing relationships dating back to his post-premiership years, have made him a fixture in climate summits hosted by these countries. Critics note his close rapport with Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of the UAE’s oil giant Adnoc and controversial COP28 president, raising questions about Blair’s influence on the summit’s direction. While the final agreement at COP28 to “transition away from fossil fuels” was historic, it has since faced erosion, notably during COP29 in Azerbaijan, another fossil fuel state advised by TBI.
Supporters argue Blair is a pragmatist, not a saboteur. TBI says it works with both oil-producing and climate-vulnerable nations and insists its climate vision is grounded in realism. Their approach emphasizes future technologies, from AI-enhanced renewables to carbon capture and nuclear fusion, as key tools in the climate fight. But critics argue this “tech-first” approach risks becoming a convenient delay tactic, especially when existing renewable technologies are already effective and rapidly scaling.
Some, like David King, Blair’s former chief scientific adviser, warn against this kind of thinking. Framing climate action as a binary—either innovate or reduce emissions—is not only false but dangerous. Others perceive Blair as disconnected, conducting his operations from luxurious hotels and ministerial suites, distant from the communities already struggling with the effects of climate change.
Domestically, Blair’s influence appears to be waning. Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently made a bold declaration at an energy summit: that climate action is “in the DNA” of his government. Standing beside a beaming Ed Miliband, Starmer outlined a muscular industrial policy focused on clean tech investment. Meanwhile, whispers of Blairite interference in Labour’s climate agenda have sparked unease among insiders and may have backfired.
Ironically, the man once hailed as the architect of modern British climate policy now risks becoming an unwitting ally to the forces that seek to dismantle it. Blair may be pulling climate action away from the bold, collective urgency that the crisis demands by trying to steer it onto what he sees as a more “rational” path.
