(Commonwealth_ India) India has emerged as the third most powerful nation in Asia, surpassing Japan and Russia, according to the latest Asia Power Index published by Australia’s Lowy Institute. This development marks a significant shift in the region’s power dynamics, establishing India as a rising force alongside the United States and China.
The Asia Power Index evaluates 27 countries and territories in the region, assessing their ability to project power and influence across various domains, including economic, military, diplomatic, and cultural. Notably, India has moved ahead of Japan for the first time in this ranking, reflecting substantial advancements in its power accumulation over recent years.
In 2024, India attained a score of 39.1, an upsurge of 2.7 points from the prior year. The United States holds its position as the most powerful country in the region with a score of 81.7, shadowed by China at 72.7. Japan’s decline in the rankings is primarily attributed to its prolonged economic stagnation. Once a dominant economic power, Japan has seen its competitive advantages eroded by rising competitors such as South Korea, China, and Taiwan, resulting in its drop to fourth place.
Despite this setback, Japan has fortified its defense and security posture. The nation has adopted a more assertive approach, enhancing collaboration with the United States and regional partners to counter increasing Chinese influence. The recent signing of the Reciprocal Access Agreement with the Philippines exemplifies Japan’s renewed focus on security and military cooperation.
India’s ascent in the Asia Power Index underscores both its expanding capabilities and the untapped potential it possesses. While it has surpassed Japan, the report indicates that India still faces significant challenges in meeting the expectations commensurate with its abundant resources. Specifically, India’s capacity to project power and influence beyond certain geographic boundaries, particularly east of the Malacca Strait, remains limited.
Conferring to the Lowy Institute report, the fact that its impact remains well under the level assured by its resources recommends it still has sufficient potential for further development as a major power. Key factors contributing to India’s rise comprise its robust economic growth, military modernization efforts, and an expanding diplomatic footprint. Nevertheless, India faces a pronounced “power gap”—the disparity between its projected influence in Asia based on its resources—which is the largest in the region, surpassed only by Russia and South Korea.
The competition for dominance in Asia remains largely between the United States and China, with both nations maintaining significant leads in the rankings. The United States holds a clear advantage over China in six of the eight parameters used to measure power, including economic capability, diplomatic influence, and cultural reach. However, the gap is narrowing, particularly in the military domain, as China makes substantial progress in modernizing its military forces.
Despite China’s advancing capabilities, the United States continues to maintain its leadership role in Asia. The report highlights that the US retains its lead over China in six out of eight key indicators, although it is gradually losing ground in military capability as China enhances its capacity to project power regionally.
The long-term competition between the United States and China is poised to shape the future of Asian geopolitics. As both superpowers prepare for a sustained contest, the current bipolar power structure in Asia is likely to endure for the foreseeable future. In this context, India’s rise as a major power is a pivotal development, and its continued growth across economic, military, and diplomatic spheres will play a crucial role in shaping regional dynamics. Moving forward, India must prioritize closing the gap between its resources and its influence, ensuring that its ascent is not merely acknowledged but fully realized in the coming decades.
