U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent moves in Washington have starkly reminded Australia of an uncomfortable truth: the nation remains ill-prepared for a global landscape increasingly defined by American protectionism. Despite warnings that have echoed since Trump’s first term—and even earlier, in the aftermath of the Iraq conflict and the 2008 global financial crisis—Australian political leaders have largely failed to respond with the urgency or clarity the situation demands.
Trade Minister Don Farrell’s recent remark that he was “not scared of Trump” underscored this lack of foresight. Rather than being reassuring, such statements reflect a worrying absence of depth in Australia’s strategic trade thinking, particularly in the face of potential economic upheaval caused by shifting U.S. policies. Experts highlighted the need for serious planning and action at a critical security conference held in Canberra and convened by former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Dr. Heather Smith, a respected economist and president of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, warned of the profound long-term implications that current global trends pose for Australia’s security, economy, and societal cohesion. She criticized political and bureaucratic circles for merely acknowledging the challenges without offering substantive responses. As the country nears another federal election, there is no unified national vision or bipartisan approach to navigating the complex changes in global trade and security. More concerning is the lack of public awareness regarding the sacrifices necessary to ensure national resilience and the implications of increasing defence expenditures.
Dr. Smith’s call becomes more urgent for transparent and strategic communication with the public as trust in the U.S. alliance begins to waver. Yet Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has, to date, offered little in terms of comprehensive policy or leadership on these pressing matters. Beyond his efforts to stabilize relations with China and his support for the AUKUS pact, his administration has not articulated a cohesive response to emerging global threats, particularly those driven by the evolving U.S. stance on trade.
Complementing Smith’s concerns was Professor Shiro Armstrong, director of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research at the Australian National University. Armstrong, a key figure in contemporary Australian economic diplomacy, emphasized the importance of defending the multilateral trading system now under strain due to Washington’s increasingly unilateral actions. He warned that Southeast Asia, a region where Australia has significant influence, stands to suffer the most from disruptions to global trade frameworks. Armstrong argued that reinforcing partnerships across Asia—particularly with countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore—should be prioritized over reflexive alignment with traditional Western allies.
Despite these calls for regional engagement, the Australian government appears more reactive than strategic. For example, Albanese’s immediate consultation with Britain’s Keir Starmer regarding U.S. tariffs highlighted a missed opportunity to solidify ties with key Asian partners who are equally vulnerable to a breakdown in global trade norms.
Looking forward, should the Albanese government secure a second term, it will need to appoint a new trade minister with a comprehensive understanding of international trade dynamics—someone capable of providing timely, informed advice and avoiding political theatrics. Equally, Australia’s defence leadership must be equipped with the intellectual rigor necessary to navigate an increasingly complex security environment.
In conclusion, relying on hope that the current phase of U.S. protectionism will pass is no longer a viable strategy. Australia needs to thoroughly reevaluate its economic and strategic policies instead of trying to fit outmoded assumptions to new global realities. The implications of Trump-era policies may not yet rival the seismic events of the 20th century, but their potential to reshape the international order—and Australia’s place within it—is undeniable. Without decisive and forward-thinking action, the nation risks drifting further from a secure and prosperous future.
