Cairo – Egypt wrapped up FY 2024/2025 with a bang: GDP grew by around 5% in the fourth quarter, taking annual growth to an estimated 4.4%—the fastest annual growth since the slowdowns of the last few periods. Officials report that it was the fastest quarterly growth in three years, a recovery that surprised much of the forecasting community.
It wasn’t oil, either, that fueled this ascent. It was people, plants, and pixels. Tourism spearheaded the recovery—tourism activity grew by nearly 19.3% in Q4, easing the sector to get over 17 million visitors for the year and nearly 179 million total visitor nights. That recovery filled hotel lobbies and poured money into restaurants, transportation, and local crafts.
Manufacturing experienced a remarkable revival. In Q4, non-oil manufacturing surged by 18.8% for the quarter and an impressive 14.7% for the year, led by motor vehicles (126% increase), pharmaceuticals (52% increase), and ready-made garments (41% increase). These sectors suggest that Egypt’s factories are not just restarting—they are retooling for higher-value exporting.
Export volumes and investment offer a compatible story: exports of goods and services rose from LE 1.4 trillion to LE 1.7 trillion at constant prices, or 23.7% growth. Imports increased too, reflecting elevated domestic demand and purchases of inputs for production. Furthermore, the investment mix changed: the share of public investment decreased, while the share of private investment increased to 47.5%, the highest share in five years, signaling a confidence shift for private sector investing.
However, not all the numbers are impressive. The Suez Canal experienced a remarkable year-on-year drop, considering multiple hindrances to regional trade, and extractive industries, including natural gas, contracted. However, policymakers point to a positive headline: inventories and investment swung from a drag last year to a strong positive contribution this quarter, implying that firms are using their new capacity to begin rebuilding stocks.
Rania Al-Mashat, Minister of Planning, trumpeted these figures as evidence that the economy can adjust to external shocks while advancing on its structural reforms: digital expansion, public investment governance, and openings from the private sector remain central to its plan. People credited Egypt’s Digital Strategy and 5G rollout for keeping communications and IT afloat during the crisis and posting double-digit growth.
If the data from the year holds, Egypt may be entering a new phase, one in which tourists, factories, and tech are growth drivers together, and where private capital is finally the leader. Questions now are whether this momentum can continue amid global uncertainty—and whether Cairo can turn quarter-to-quarter bursts of activity into sustained economic welfare.
