Environmental (Commonwealth Union)_ A deadly fungal pathogen that thrives in warm environments is set to expand into vast new territories due to rising global temperatures, posing a serious threat to public health, food security, and ecosystems, according to a major new study.
The research highlights how climate change is driving the spread of Aspergillus fungi, particularly Aspergillus fumigatus, which can cause a potentially fatal lung disease called aspergillosis. Experts warn that as global temperatures rise, millions more people, especially in northern Europe, Asia, and North America, will be exposed to the spores of this killer fungus.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Norman van Rhijn, a Wellcome Trust research fellow at the University of Manchester and co-author of the study, warned the world is “nearing a tipping point” with fungal diseases. “In 50 years, where things grow and what you get infected by is going to be completely different,” he said.
What Is Aspergillosis?
Aspergillus is a common mould found in soil, decaying vegetation, and compost environments that mirror the warm, moist conditions of the human body. People frequently inhale its spores without harm, but those with asthma, cystic fibrosis, or weakened immune systems are significantly at risk.
The most serious form of infection, invasive aspergillosis, can spread from the lungs to the brain, kidneys, and heart, with high fatality rates among immunocompromised patients. Van Rhijn noted that fungal infections could soon be responsible for millions of deaths globally every year if left unaddressed.
The climate crisis is accelerating fungal threats
The study projects that Aspergillus fumigatus could expand into 77% more territory by the year 2100, driven by the warming climate caused by fossil fuel emissions. This expansion could place up to nine million additional people in Europe alone at risk of infection.
“This is about continental shifts in species distributions,” Van Rhijn said. “We’re talking about hundreds of thousands of lives.”
Researchers point out that the fungus’s ability to thrive at 37°C, the temperature of the human body, is no coincidence. “Its lifestyle in compost and other heated natural environments may have given it a unique evolutionary advantage to invade the human lung,” explained Professor Elaine Bignell, co-director of the MRC Centre for Medical Mycology at Exeter University.
Food security is also at risk
Another species, Aspergillus flavus, lives on agricultural crops and produces dangerous toxins that can contaminate food supplies. Researchers found it could expand into 16% more territory across north China, Russia, Scandinavia, and Alaska by the end of the century.
At the same time, climate shifts may render parts of Africa and Brazil inhospitable to the fungus, threatening delicate ecosystems and possibly disrupting food production in those regions.
“There are serious threats from this organism both in terms of human health and food security,” said Professor Darius Armstrong-James, an expert in infectious diseases and medical mycology at Imperial College London.
Aspergillus: Friend and Foe
Despite its dangers, Aspergillus is not always harmful. Aspergillus finds widespread use in industrial and food production processes, such as the fermentation of soy sauce and sake. The same biological traits that make it commercially valuable—rapid growth and resilience in hostile environments—also contribute to its potential as a formidable pathogen.
The rise of drug-resistant fungal strains is compounding the problem. Treatments for invasive aspergillosis are limited and often less effective as fungi evolve resistance to antifungal medications.
Urgent Need for Action
Public health experts are calling for greater investment in fungal disease research, more robust surveillance systems, and new antifungal drug development to keep pace with emerging threats. The World Health Organization has already listed Aspergillus fumigatus among the priority fungal pathogens requiring urgent global attention.
“Fungal infections have long been overlooked,” said Van Rhijn. “But we can no longer afford that luxury. The climate crisis is rewriting the rules of infection.”
