Africa (Commonwealth Union) _As South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) commemorates its 112th anniversary, the party faces an uphill battle in the upcoming national elections, expected to be its toughest since taking power in 1994.
The ANC, historically led by Nelson Mandela, played a pivotal role in the country’s liberation from racial segregation and minority rule. President Cyril Ramaphosa, also the head of the ANC, is seeking a second term amidst widespread criticism for failing to address the needs of the country’s poor Black majority amid economic challenges and corruption allegations.
The ANC has been grappling with an unemployment rate of around 32%, with 60% of the unemployed being young people. This, coupled with power blackouts and a lack of basic services, has led to growing discontent among the electorate. Election polls suggest that the ANC may struggle to secure more than 50% of the vote, a threshold needed for victory, signaling potential challenges in maintaining its historical electoral dominance.
Economic hardships, allegations of corruption involving ANC leaders, and a lack of trust have contributed to the erosion of the party’s electoral support. In the 2019 elections, the ANC secured 57.5% of the vote, a significant decline from the nearly 70% it garnered in 2004. Former President Jacob Zuma’s recent denouncement of the ANC and support for a new political party, Umkhonto we Sizwe, adds another layer of complexity to the political landscape. While the impact of Umkhonto we Sizwe on the elections remains uncertain, breakaway parties have historically influenced ANC support, as seen with the formation of the Congress of the People in 2008 and the Economic Freedom Fighters in 2013.
The ANC’s challenges are not only from opposition parties but also from within, with distrust among voters posing a significant threat. If the ANC fails to secure more than 50% in the upcoming elections, coalition agreements with opposition parties may become a necessity. The date for the elections is yet to be announced, but they are expected to take place between May and August this year. As the ANC navigates these formidable challenges, its 112th anniversary celebration serves as a backdrop to the evolving political landscape in South Africa.
