Australia is facing another wet and stormy season, increasing the chances of flooding, cyclones, and thunderstorms. Long-term forecasts show an active spring and summer, influenced by various global and regional weather systems. Notably, the potential return of La Niña is special at the moment. If it happens, it would be the fifth time in six years, a pattern not seen since the early 1970s.
Several large-scale systems are coming together to shape Australia’s seasonal outlook. A strongly negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is already in effect, causing warmer waters near Indonesia and cooler waters near Africa. This setup usually leads to more rainfall across much of the continent. Global climate change is also influencing rainfall patterns during Australia’s warmer months, thereby complicating the seasonal forecast. The most uncertain aspect is the potential development of La Niña. Atmospheric signals are gradually aligning, although the Southern Oscillation Index remains below typical La Niña levels. If the Pacific continues to cool in the coming weeks, a weak, late-forming La Niña could emerge, affecting rainfall patterns until early summer.
Combining these factors results in a relatively low chance of a dry season, particularly in the eastern states. South-east Australia may experience significant rainfall that could help ease the major deficits accumulated since early 2024. However, meteorologists warn that one wet season is not enough to end long-term drought; several consecutive seasons of above-average rain are needed to restore balance. It can be depicted that wetter conditions across the country are expected to lower fire risks compared to recent years.
The outlook for tropical activity suggests an above-average cyclone season. Australia usually sees about 10 cyclones each year, though that number has dropped slightly in recent decades. Initial guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates that about 11 cyclones could form this season, with at least six expected to reach severe levels. This would make it one of the most active seasons in the last two decades.
In addition, thunderstorms are expected to occur more often, especially along the eastern coast. Warmer offshore waters near Brisbane and Sydney will create ideal conditions for intense storm activity in the afternoons. The increased risk of thunderstorms, along with the cyclone forecast, suggests a highly active severe weather season is ahead.
Moreover, extra cloud cover may reduce extreme daytime heat compared to previous summers; most regions are still expected to be warmer than average. It could be brought to light that high humidity and persistently warm nights will likely make the season feel hotter than the temperature readings indicate. Moreover, muggy nights and sticky afternoons will create uncomfortable living conditions, even if daytime heat isn’t at record levels.
Australia is currently in a period defined by successive wet climate patterns. Since 2020, most severe weather seasons have brought above-average rainfall, with record amounts recorded in New South Wales, Queensland, and the tropics. The repeated occurrence of La Niña, along with frequent negative IOD phases, is unusual and resembles the humid period seen in the early 1970s.
Despite these widespread rainfall events, the western and southern coasts of the nation have often remained drier, affected by changes in high-pressure systems and cold fronts. Scientists believe that global warming may be changing these circulation patterns, influencing where and how rain falls across the continent. It can be mentioned that when the 2025 severe weather season approaches, Australians should prepare for increased risks of storms, flooding, and cyclones, along with the potential for much-needed relief in long-dry areas. Communities’ resilience is likely to face another challenge due to the combination of natural variability and climate change.
