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Students in Rwanda defy pandemic forecasting by returning to school

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Rwanda (Commonwealth Union) – Fatigued by lockdowns and other restrictions there was a keen interest for life to return back to normal as large numbers of people experienced depression due to feeling isolated. New findings from Rwanda, some of the 1st published on how COVID-19 went on to impact school attendance in the Global South, indicate that a widely-predicted spike in drop-out rates has not taken place.

When the pandemic brought about schools across the globe to close, analysts, academics and teachers had been warning that many students in less developed countries might not return. Some estimates indicated that more than 10 million school-age students are at risk of dropping out globally and they were particularly worried about marginalized groups such as the poorest kids.

The research, utilized enrolment data of 358 secondary schools in Rwanda. The data collected both prior and after the closures, revealed that rather than undergoing a sharp decline, student numbers actually increased during the reopening of schools. The reasons appear to have been a collection of existing students returning, and the enrolment of other pupils who were not attending school before the pandemic started.

Researchers stated that this may be part of an emerging pattern, due to the as-yet unpublished findings from other sub-Saharan countries, like Ethiopia and Malawi, similarly show no steep decline. Despite this, a more slow, long-term reduction in the numbers in school may be taking place. The research tracked enrolment past the point where schools reopened in Rwanda, and up to May 2021. By that point, some students did seem to be dropping out of the system particularly individuals from marginalized groups.

The study was conducted by a team from the University of Cambridge and the East African research and data collection firm, Laterite, and was carried out for the Mastercard Foundation’s Leaders in Teaching Initiative.

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