On December 8, 2024, Syrian rebel forces led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Syria’s capital, Damascus, with minimal resistance, ending the Assad family’s five-decade rule over the country. President Bashar al-Assad had reportedly fled the country, marking the most dramatic power shift in Syria since the civil war began in 2011.
Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for nearly 30 years. In 2011, the suppression of protests demanding political change marred his tenure, triggering a catastrophic civil war that claimed more than 500,000 lives and displaced 12 million people.
After years of military stalemates and shifting alliances, the conflict had seemed largely frozen, with Assad’s forces, backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, controlling major cities, while HTS and other rebel factions held the northwestern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. However, on November 27, 2024, HTS and its allied groups launched a surprise offensive from their strongholds.
Within the course of three days, rebels captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, encountering little resistance from the opposition as government forces rapidly retreated, the military’s collapse accelerating as rebels swept south along the key highway leading to Damascus. On December 5, Hama fell after fierce fighting, followed by Homs just two days later.
By early December 8, HTS-led rebels entered Damascus, releasing prisoners from the notorious Saydnaya military prison. Hours later, they announced that Assad had fled the country, though his exact whereabouts remained unknown. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali appeared in a video, pledging to cooperate with any leadership the Syrian people chose.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani declared victory in Damascus, promising to create a “homeland for all” that respects all sects and social classes; he ordered his forces not to seize government institutions, stating they would remain under the prime minister’s authority until an official transfer of power could take place.
The collapse of the Assad regime has sparked intense international reactions, with implications for the broader Middle East. Russia, Assad’s primary backer, has expressed “extreme concern,” placed its military bases in Syria on high alert, and called for a peaceful resolution through political means.
Iran, another crucial ally, urged an end to hostilities, stressing the need for inclusive national talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan calling for an orderly political transition, emphasizing the need for inclusivity in any future government.
Meanwhile, Israel has seized Syrian military positions in the demilitarized Golan Heights, referring to a breakdown of the 1974 ceasefire agreement, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming that the collapse of Assad’s government was due to Israeli actions targeting Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Syria.
The U.S., European Union, and Iraq stressed the importance of stability and urged peaceful dialogue as U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration confirmed that it was closely monitoring the unfolding events.
The HTS, which emerged in 2012 as the al-Nusra Front, has evolved into a dominant force in Syria, despite being labelled a terrorist organization. Its role in Syria’s uncertain future remains pivotal.
The fall of the Assad regime, once seen as improbable, marks a concern for various minorities in Syria, such as the Christians and the Alawites, a branch of Shia Islam, and the Kurds.
