Britain’s manufacturing sector has recorded a notable improvement in factory order books, with the latest industry survey pointing to the strongest level of demand in more than three years and offering fresh evidence that conditions for manufacturers may be beginning to stabilise.
The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) September Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturers’ total order books improved for a second consecutive month. The balance moved to -9% in September, compared with -25% in August, representing the least negative reading since July 2023.
The improvement is significant because the order-book balance measures how manufacturers assess their current orders against what they regard as normal levels. Although a negative reading still indicates that orders remain below normal overall, the sharp monthly improvement suggests that the gap has narrowed considerably.
The latest figures also indicate that the improvement extends beyond domestic demand. Export order books remained substantially stronger than their long-term average, even though the September balance weakened from the previous month. The CBI said export books stood at -9%, compared with a long-run average of -19%.
Production conditions also reflected signs of becoming less challenging. Output volumes declined only marginally during the 3 months to September, with the weighted balance improving to -4% from -17% in the previous 3-month period. The CBI said the figure represented the slowest rate of decline since the three months to July 2025.
However, the improvement remains uneven across manufacturing. Output fell in 12 of the 17 sectors covered by the survey, with metal products, food, drink & tobacco, and electronic engineering among the areas contributing to the decline. Motor vehicles, transport equipment, mechanical engineering, and chemicals all recorded increases.
Manufacturers are also becoming less concerned about future selling-price pressures. Expectations for average selling-price inflation fell to +12% from +22% in August, bringing the measure only modestly above its long-run average.
CBI senior economist, Cameron Martin said, the latest figures indicated growing evidence of stabilisation, while cautioning that it was too early to describe the development as a sustained recovery.
Manufacturers continue to contend with elevated supply-chain, energy and employment costs, factors that may constrain investment and production even as order books improve.
The survey, which drew responses from 234 manufacturers, therefore presents a mixed but more encouraging picture: demand conditions have strengthened substantially, while production remains fragile.
The developments add to wider evidence that the UK economy has retained some resilience despite continuing pressures on businesses. The CBI’s findings suggest that, after a prolonged period of weakness, manufacturers may be entering a phase in which improving orders and easing price expectations provide greater scope for stabilisation.
