Africa (Commonwealth Union) _ President Bola Tinubu has achieved a contradictory political milestone just midway into his tenure, shifting national discourse from pressing governance issues to speculation about 2027. Rather than holding him accountable for his 2023 campaign promises, the country’s political elite have redirected attention to election permutations, allowing Tinubu to sidestep urgent crises. However, this tactical success comes with an impending backlash, as an undercurrent of opposition surges on multiple fronts.
Public conversations have largely transitioned from assessing Tinubu’s effectiveness to debating his chances of securing re-election. While politically advantageous in the short term, this shift risks creating a vacuum where electoral maneuvering overshadows real governance. Nigeria‘s deepening economic hardships, soaring inflation, food scarcity, and rising insecurity ought to dominate political discourse. Instead, Tinubu and his allies have steered focus toward power retention, skillfully deflecting scrutiny from governance failures.
Economic struggles persistently take center stage. The cost of basic necessities—rice, housing, school fees, transportation, and healthcare—remains an ever-present concern for citizens. While political actors are fixated on 2027, public discontent is simmering beneath the surface. The question is no longer whether Tinubu has delivered but whether he can withstand mounting opposition.
The resistance to his leadership is unfolding on three major fronts. First, there’s the conventional partisan opposition, spearheaded by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under the familiar banner of Atiku Abubakar. However, internal instability fueled by Minister Nyesom Wike’s disruptive influence continues to weaken the PDP’s effectiveness. Peter Obi’s Labour Party, while vocal, remains largely a social media-driven movement, lacking a concrete governance alternative beyond criticism.
More significant is the internal rift within Tinubu’s own party, the APC. The ruling party, once seemingly united, is now divided between the president’s conservative power bloc and a sidelined progressive faction led by figures like Yemi Osinbajo and Nasir El-Rufai. These younger, dynamic politicians feel alienated and see the Tinubu government as betraying its original reformist ethos. Their growing dissent signals a looming intra-party reckoning.
Lastly, perhaps most concerning for Tinubu, is widespread public apathy. Economic distress and disillusionment with governance have left many Nigerians indifferent, fostering a sense of detachment rather than active opposition. While a fractured opposition benefits Tinubu’s re-election strategy, discontent within his own party may prove to be the greatest threat to his political future.
