According to economists parsing the latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures, early signs of an economic rebound in the 2nd quarter may put to rest any talk of Canada being in a recession.
Statistics Canada (StatsCan) reported on Friday, 31 July ’26 that real GDP rose 0.3% in May ’26. This is amidst growth in both goods & service sides of the economy. It topped StatCan’s own initial estimate for 0.1% growth during that month.
Senior economist at CIBC, Andrew Grantham intimated that growth was fairly broad-based during May ’26.
With expectations for a 0.2% growth in June ’26, StatCan’s advance estimates now point to a 3.4% annualised gain in the 2nd quarter.
If those figures hold, it may mark a sharp rebound from a mild contraction during the 1st quarter of this year.
Grantham added that Canada always expected a rebound. The fact that the rebound that is being witnessing in Q2 is even stronger than what Canada may be initially expecting. It may put the final exclamation mark on the fact that Canada may not currently be in a recession.
StatCan point to growth in oil &^ gas extraction as well as a resurgence in the housing market as a couple of the industries fueling growth during May ’26.
Grantham also noted that these sectors were both bouncing back from temporary drags during the 1st quarter ’26. Early maintenance activity weighed on oil & gas output. Besides, harsh winter weather put a chill on home sales.
Grantham further added that other temporary factors like hiring for the census & FIFA World Cup games in June ’26 also likely benefited the economy with a lift during the 2nd quarter.
StatCan said offices of real estate agents & brokers witnessed activity increase 5.1% during May ’26. This was the subsector’s largest monthly jump since October ’24. Despite the recent gains, Grantham noted that the housing market may by no means be strong right now.
