London United Kingdom (Commonwealth Union)_The United Kingdom narrowly avoided dipping into a recession by keeping its Gross Domestic Product flat in the last three months ended December 2022. The flat output from the services sector in the 4Q 2022 resulting from declines in education, transport and storage sub-sectors, and growth inclines of 0.3 percent in the construction sector offset by 0.2 percent fall in the production sector attributed to the UK from narrowly avoiding a recession.
While GDP did decline in 3Q, no growth in the 4Q meant that the UK’s economy avoided going into recession which is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP validating a recession. It was a very close call given that it was just two decimal places and the economy growing by just 0.1 percent in that quarter. Economists explain that if GDP had been slightly lower, the economy would have contracted and gone into a recession. While households continue to wrestle with double-digit inflation, economists continue to maintain that the UK will enter a recession in early 2023.
In November, growth for the month remained at the forecast 0.1 per cent, while in December, monthly GDP fell by 0.5 per cent, with the services sector declining 0.8 percent and production output increasing by 0.3 percent, while the construction sector remained flat. The slowdown is also attributed to the break in Premier League football for the World Cup and postal strikes, although the declines were partially offset by lawyers experiencing a strong month, growth in car sales and energy generation seeing an incline due to the cold spell, which also meant gas imports pushed the goods trade deficit to record highs.
The UK’s annual GDP output has grown 4.1 per cent in 2022, compared to growth in 2021 of 7.4 percent.
