Food systems in Africa are currently facing yet another test as an increasingly strengthening El Niño causes threats to disrupt necessary aspects for agriculture. Among these impacted factors lie rainfall, agricultural production and rural livelihoods that span all throughout the continent. It is known that many communities in the nation are dependent on small-scale farming. Experts in agriculture are seeking greater investment in seed systems which are much more resilient to these climate events, as well as other measures that can offer help for farmers to also adapt to these increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
A report which was made recently highlighted how important it is to strengthen Africa’s seed systems as El Niño continues to develop and grow. Crops such as millet, sorghum and adapted maize varieties which are tolerant to droughts can provide farmers with greater options during periods of water shortages. However, making resilient seeds available is only one part of the challenge. Farmers also need access to affordable, suitable agricultural advice, financing and reliable distribution networks.
The much wider outlook on climate has made these concerns increase. The Food and Agriculture Organization has identified a high probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, with risks extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar. Conditions such as these could end up affecting both crops and grazing areas. Due to that, pressure has been put on households that heavily depend on livestock as a source of food and income.
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has sent out similar warnings that El Niño and other pressures could affect agricultural production in several African regions. While Southern Africa recorded strong cereal production in parts of the 2025/26 season, adverse weather has already affected some areas. Among these areas lie parts of Angola, Mozambique and southern Madagascar. As one looks ahead, they could understand how the next agricultural season could face additional challenges regarding weather.
The implications go far beyond individual farms. Poor harvests can cause a reduction in household incomes, limit the availability of food and place additional pressure on communities that are already vulnerable. The FAO and World Food Program have warned that developing El Niño conditions could make droughts and floods which are throughout Africa more increased. Because of this, millions of food-insecure people are at risk through next year as well. Their response plans include anticipatory measures such as providing seeds and other agricultural assistance before severe conditions come up.
Agricultural researchers are also highlighting the importance of acting before losses take place. CGIAR has pointed to the value of early-warning information, agricultural intelligence and targeted support for smallholder farmers as climate risks increase. This approach can end up helping governments and humanitarian organizations to identify vulnerable areas and respond before a weather shock develops into a wider food crisis.
Food prices add to another layer of pressure. The FAO reported that its global Food Price Index reached 133.3 points in August this year (2026), the highest level since late 2022. Grain prices were among those contributing to the increase, while the organization also reduced its forecast for global cereal production in 2026. Although global price movements do not affect every African market in the same way, higher international prices can create additional challenges for countries dependent on food imports.
Due to that, for African agriculture, building stronger seed systems needs to be part of a larger strategy of resilience. Drought-tolerant varieties can help protect harvests, but their impact depends on whether farmers can obtain them in time and combine them with effective water management, finance, market access and agricultural information.
As El Niño continues to influence weather patterns, preparations made before the most severe impacts arrive could play an important role in protecting food production and reducing pressure on vulnerable communities across Africa.
