The most recent figure represents the highest level that was recorded by the index since November 2022. Even though prices remain considerably below the record which was reached during the global food-price crisis of March 2022. The increase was mainly driven by cereals, sugar and vegetable oils, which are considered bare necessities while meat prices declined and dairy prices continued to be broadly unchanged.
Cereals recorded one of the strongest increases. The FAO Cereal Price Index climbed 5.1 per cent in September, with wheat prices rising 6.3 per cent and maize increasing 5.6 per cent. Wheat prices were affected by logistical difficulties around the Black Sea, while concerns over harvest conditions in parts of North America also contributed to the increase. Maize markets faced additional pressure from lower-than-expected yields in the United States and reduced export availability from Brazil.
Transport is another factor that has become an important part of the story. Disruptions around the Black Sea and uncertainty affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. There have been increased concerns over freight, fuel and fertiliser costs. These pressures can eventually reach food markets because agricultural products most often depend on long and complex supply chains before reaching consumers.
Sugar prices also rose sharply, increasing 6.1 per cent during September. FAO linked the rise to expectations of tighter supplies in the 2026/27 season. Production concerns in Thailand and India, heavy rainfall in parts of Brazil and a smaller area planted with sugar beet in the European Union all contributed to the more cautious outlook.
Weather is becoming an increasingly important factor that strongly affects food markets. The World Bank’s latest Food Security Update had stated that global supplies continue to be broadly adequate, but commodity prices have risen since June, and that includes increases of 18 per cent for cereals, 26 percent for maize and 22 percent for wheat. It also warned that strengthening El Niño conditions could also increase the risk of disrupted rainfall, extreme heat, drought and flooding through late 2026 and into early 2027.
These climate risks could create much more uncertainty for farmers and food companies. Reports which were made recently have highlighted concerns that many businesses are not sufficiently prepared for multiple climate hazards occurring at the same time, such as drought, flooding, wildfires and pest outbreaks.
Even though there is an increase in prices recently, the FAO expects global cereal production in 2026 to remain historically high at about 2.979 billion tonnes, which would still be the second-largest harvest on record. This suggests that the current situation is not just a matter of global food supplies being insufficient. Instead, it is about how production conditions, trade routes, weather and transportation expenses are interacting to make markets more vulnerable.
For food-importing countries, continued increases could become particularly challenging. International prices, which are higher, can raise the cost of imports and eventually place pressure on household food budgets. The latest figures highlight the importance of strengthening agricultural resilience, improving supply chains, and preparing for increasingly unpredictable weather conditions.
As El Niño continues to grow more and more each day, and transport routes continue to be vulnerable to disruptions which are taking place, the direction of global food prices in the upcoming months will heavily depend on harvest results, weather patterns and the stability of international trade.
Higher food prices can end up having serious consequences for households that are already grappling with rising living costs. Families may reduce the amount or variety of food they purchase, while lower-income countries can face greater import costs. Strengthening local production, storage facilities and reliable supply networks can help communities withstand future disruptions.
